1246 Alligator Aly · Haines City, FL 33844

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2005 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Canal-front 3 bed / 2 bath block & stucco home on 113 ft of canal in the peaceful Shady Cove area of Haines City — no HOA, no restrictions, direct water access to Lake Marion. Built in 2005 and sitting on a 0.39-acre lot with 113 feet of canal frontage, this 1,672 sq ft single-story home offers the rare combination of newer construction, solid block construction, and true waterfront living at an approachable price point. The open layout features a master suite with walk-in closet, central kitchen with dishwasher, range, range hood, and refrigerator, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace in the living area. Carpet and laminate flooring througho

Key facts

• Canal front
• Private backyard
• Newer construction

Tags

• CANAL FRONT
• DIRECT WATER ACCESS
• 113 FEET OF CANAL FRONTAGE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEWER CONSTRUCTION
• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned RC
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (single level); Home faces north
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 1,672 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Laundry closet; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $250k implies a 1011% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,632 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,831
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-73,569
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,170

Max offer price $222,813

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-83	+0% $-153	+5% $-224	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-231	+0% $-153	+5% $-75	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-90	base $-153	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1155 Shady Cove Rd E Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$1,850	$1.03	25d	1	0.15mi
3318 Camelot Dr #3318 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,075	$0.96	4d	1	1.13mi
176 Palm View Ct Unit 3475/6 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,275	$1.14	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   price $249,900
3. 2026-05-08
   price $264,900
4. 2026-04-27
   price $275,000
5. 2026-04-21
   listed $280,000 Active
6. 2004-01-13
   soldstatus $22,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,600 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,600 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $-353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1010.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,600 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.