16589 N Grand Pine Way · Nampa, ID 83651

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large 2 bedroom with 1 full bath. All appliances included as well as furniture and 75& quot; tv. New water heater. All new appliances and cabinets in kitchen. New full size tub and shower in bathroom. Metal roof installed. Comes with Window AC units. Home is well insulated and has low utilities all year. New kitchen and bath not in photos currently.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New water heater
• Well insulated

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETS
• METAL ROOF
• WELL INSULATED
• LOW UTILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.82%
• DSCR: 3.26
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $50,480
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $143,255
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83651

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $274/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $566

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $932	-5% $911	+0% $889	+5% $868	+10% $847
Rent	-10% $756	-5% $823	+0% $889	+5% $956	+10% $1,023
Rate	-1.0pp $927	-0.5pp $908	base $889	+0.5pp $870	+1.0pp $850

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Canyon Village Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1161	$2,150	$1.85	4d	31	0.73mi
1275 Caldwell Blvd Nampa, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,625	$1.76	24d	1	1.32mi
9848 W Sand Hill Dr Nampa, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$1,488	$1.48	24d	1	1.35mi
10890 Blue River Ln Nampa, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	832	$1,696	$2.04	4d	8	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 351-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $274 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$244/yr (+$20/mo · 89.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$274
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,406
• After-tax cash flow: $8,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nampa, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 38,121
• Household income: $69,914
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.40%
• Current HPI: 335.6717
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.41%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+22.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $274 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.