Chester Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$194,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily · 426 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Growing families appreciate the strategic design of our two-story Chester. Enjoy the convenience of a main-level primary bedroom complete with a spacious walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide flexible space for children, guests, or a dedicated home office. The open concept living, dining, and kitchen areas makes entertaining as special as you are.

Key facts

• Listed 426 days

🏗️ New construction. The $194,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $196,165.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1877 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,165
• List price: $194,990
• Delta: -0.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30508 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	2mo	$188,960	$150	91
30507 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	3mo	$194,185	$155	89
30524 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	7mo	$195,035	$155	85
30546 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,204 (-4%)	2mo	$219,980	$183	82
23123 Daftmill Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	3mo	$239,230	$199	82
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	5mo	$239,230	$199	80
30505 Bladnoch Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	8mo	$217,780	$173	79
30518 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,353 (+8%)	5mo	$210,025	$155	73
30509 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	5mo	$198,405	$177	72
30514 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	5mo	$192,295	$172	70
30522 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	7mo	$189,795	$170	68
30533 Bladnoch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	8mo	$198,720	$178	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,002
• Equity at exit: $29,249

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-47,789
• Equity at exit: $16,961

Cash invested: $54,926 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $245,990 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 291 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1877
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,029
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,942/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $196,165

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $98	+0% $30	+5% $-38	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-39	+0% $30	+5% $99	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $80	base $30	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,041
• Closing costs: $5,885
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-29
   days on market $194,990 Active 426 DOM
2. 2026-10-28
   days on market $194,990 Active 425 DOM
3. 2026-10-27
   days on market $194,990 Active 424 DOM
4. 2026-10-26
   days on market $194,990 Active 423 DOM
5. 2026-10-26
   days on market $194,990 Active 422 DOM
6. 2026-10-24
   days on market $194,990 Active 421 DOM
7. 2026-10-23
   days on market $194,990 Active 420 DOM
8. 2026-10-22
   days on market $194,990 Active 419 DOM
9. 2026-10-21
   days on market $194,990 Active 418 DOM
10. 2026-10-20
    days on market $194,990 Active 417 DOM
11. 2026-10-19
    days on market $194,990 Active 416 DOM
12. 2026-10-18
    days on market $194,990 Active 415 DOM
13. 2026-10-17
    days on market $194,990 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-10-16
    days on market $194,990 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-10-15
    days on market $194,990 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-10-14
    days on market $194,990 Active 411 DOM
17. 2026-10-13
    days on market $194,990 Active 410 DOM
18. 2026-10-12
    days on market $194,990 Active 409 DOM
19. 2026-10-11
    days on market $194,990 Active 408 DOM
20. 2026-10-10
    days on market $194,990 Active 407 DOM
21. 2026-10-09
    days on market $194,990 Active 406 DOM
22. 2026-10-08
    days on market $194,990 Active 405 DOM
23. 2026-10-07
    days on market $194,990 Active 404 DOM
24. 2026-10-06
    days on market $194,990 Active 403 DOM
25. 2026-10-05
    days on market $194,990 Active 402 DOM
26. 2026-10-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 401 DOM
27. 2026-10-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 400 DOM
28. 2026-10-02
    days on market $194,990 Active 399 DOM
29. 2026-10-01
    days on market $194,990 Active 398 DOM
30. 2026-09-30
    days on market $194,990 Active 397 DOM
31. 2026-09-29
    days on market $194,990 Active 396 DOM
32. 2026-09-28
    days on market $194,990 Active 395 DOM
33. 2026-09-27
    days on market $194,990 Active 394 DOM
34. 2026-09-26
    days on market $194,990 Active 393 DOM
35. 2026-09-25
    days on market $194,990 Active 392 DOM
36. 2026-09-24
    days on market $194,990 Active 391 DOM
37. 2026-09-23
    days on market $194,990 Active 390 DOM
38. 2026-09-22
    days on market $194,990 Active 389 DOM
39. 2026-09-21
    days on market $194,990 Active 388 DOM
40. 2026-09-20
    days on market $194,990 Active 387 DOM
41. 2026-09-19
    days on market $194,990 Active 386 DOM
42. 2026-09-18
    days on market $194,990 Active 385 DOM
43. 2026-09-17
    days on market $194,990 Active 384 DOM
44. 2026-09-16
    days on market $194,990 Active 383 DOM
45. 2026-09-15
    days on market $194,990 Active 382 DOM
46. 2026-09-14
    days on market $194,990 Active 381 DOM
47. 2026-09-13
    days on market $194,990 Active 380 DOM
48. 2026-09-12
    days on market $194,990 Active 379 DOM
49. 2026-09-05
    days on market $194,990 Active 372 DOM
50. 2026-09-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 371 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,988
• − Property taxes: −$2,942
• − Insurance: −$981
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$5,707
• Taxable loss: −$2,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $1,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Chester plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready with good curb appeal and potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups inside can improve the home's appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $194,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $204,990 Zillow