Chester Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$194,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily · 390 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Growing families appreciate the strategic design of our two-story Chester. Enjoy the convenience of a main-level primary bedroom complete with a spacious walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms upstairs provide flexible space for children, guests, or a dedicated home office. The open concept living, dining, and kitchen areas makes entertaining as special as you are.

Key facts

• Listed 390 days

🏗️ New construction. The $194,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $197,850.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1744 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,850
• List price: $194,990
• Delta: -1.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30508 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,256 (0%)	1mo	$188,960	$150	92
30507 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	2mo	$194,185	$155	90
30524 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	5mo	$195,035	$155	86
23123 Daftmill Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	2mo	$239,230	$199	84
30546 Bladnoch Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,204 (-4%)	1mo	$219,980	$183	84
23107 Daftmill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-4%)	4mo	$239,230	$199	81
30505 Bladnoch Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,256 (0%)	6mo	$217,780	$173	80
30518 Wolfburn St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,353 (+8%)	4mo	$210,025	$155	75
30509 Bladnoch Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	4mo	$198,405	$177	73
30514 Wolfburn St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	3mo	$192,295	$172	71
30522 Wolfburn St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	5mo	$189,795	$170	69
30533 Bladnoch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	7mo	$198,720	$178	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,197
• Equity at exit: $29,500

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-51,988
• Equity at exit: $17,106

Cash invested: $55,398 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,770 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1744
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,968/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $197,632

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $67	+0% $-2	+5% $-70	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-70	+0% $-2	+5% $67	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $49	base $-2	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,462
• Closing costs: $5,936
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $194,990 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $194,990 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $194,990 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $194,990 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $194,990 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $194,990 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $194,990 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $194,990 Active 383 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $194,990 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $194,990 Active 381 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $194,990 Active 380 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $194,990 Active 379 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $194,990 Active 372 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 371 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $194,990 Active 370 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $194,990 Active 366 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $194,990 Active 365 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $194,990 Active 364 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $194,990 Active 363 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $194,990 Active 361 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $194,990 Active 360 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $194,990 Active 359 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $194,990 Active 358 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $194,990 Active 357 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $194,990 Active 356 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $194,990 Active 355 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $194,990 Active 354 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $194,990 Active 353 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $194,990 Active 352 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $194,990 Active 351 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $194,990 Active 350 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $194,990 Active 349 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $194,990 Active 348 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $194,990 Active 347 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $194,990 Active 346 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $194,990 Active 345 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $194,990 Active 344 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $194,990 Active 342 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $194,990 Active 341 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $194,990 Active 340 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $194,990 Active 339 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $194,990 Active 336 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $194,990 Active 334 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $194,990 Active 333 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $194,990 Active 331 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $194,990 Active 329 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $194,990 Active 328 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $194,990 Active 327 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $194,990 Active 326 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $194,990 Active 325 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,968
• − Insurance: −$989
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$5,756
• Taxable loss: −$3,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Chester plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready with good curb appeal and potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups inside can improve the home's appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $194,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Listed $204,990 Zillow