5422 Flax Bourton St · Atascocita, TX 77346

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1994 6,298 sqft lot $130/sqft · 6% below area Est $278k · 6% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This home encompasses over 2000 square feet in a fantastic location near everything! With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, remodeled kitchen, gas log fireplace and extra large additional living area, this property has it all. Newer granite countertops and additional upgrades make this one a great choice for a family or anyone pursuing convenient living. Access to commuter routes, great schools and community amenities add to the appeal of this great home. Call to schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• 6,298 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,127 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,853
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -6.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18803 Timber Spring Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,030 (+1%)	3mo	$299,999	$148	90
18622 Timbers Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (-0%)	1mo	$270,000	$136	88
5410 Timbers Quail Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-11%)	3mo	$265,000	$149	77
18610 Timbers Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,149 (+7%)	4mo	$293,000	$136	73
5719 Flax Bourton St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,803 (-10%)	2mo	$254,900	$141	66
5202 Flax Bourton St	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,205 (+10%)	1mo	$260,000	$118	62
5238 Timber Quail Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,751 (-12%)	6mo	$249,900	$143	62
5827 Flax Bourton St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-13%)	1mo	$229,788	$132	56
12719 Muir Woods Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-7%)	0mo	$215,000	$116	55
19102 Twigsworth Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (-11%)	1mo	$189,995	$107	48
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,276 (+14%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	40
19006 Lakeshire St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (+10%)	4mo	$315,000	$143	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-41,561
• Equity at exit: $63,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,020
• Equity at exit: $66,968

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$500 /mo · $6,003/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,496

Max offer price $214,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-112	-5% $-186	+0% $-259	+5% $-333	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-345	+0% $-259	+5% $-173	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-193	base $-259	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.21mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,806	$1.19	0d	1	0.22mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	0.66mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	45d	1	0.68mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	6d	1	0.84mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.93mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	25d	1	0.99mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	45d	1	1.09mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	1.11mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	1.15mi
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	1.16mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	25d	1	1.18mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	1.23mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	45d	1	1.23mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	16d	1	1.25mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	45d	1	1.26mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	6d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $259,900 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Welcome home! This home encompasses over 2000 square feet in a fantastic location near everything! With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, remodeled kitchen, gas log fireplace and extra large additional living area, this property has it all. Newer granite countertops and additional upgrades make this one a great choice for a family or anyone pursuing convenient living. Access to commuter routes, great schools and community amenities add to the appeal of this great home. Call to schedule your private tour today!

17. 2026-03-31
    price $269,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Welcome home! This home encompasses over 2000 square feet in a fantastic location near everything! With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, remodeled kitchen, gas log fireplace and extra large additional living area, this property has it all. Newer granite countertops and additional upgrades make this one a great choice for a family or anyone pursuing convenient living. Access to commuter routes, great schools and community amenities add to the appeal of this great home. Call to schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-01-23
    listed $279,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Welcome home! This home encompasses over 2000 square feet in a fantastic location near everything! With 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, remodeled kitchen, gas log fireplace and extra large additional living area, this property has it all. Newer granite countertops and additional upgrades make this one a great choice for a family or anyone pursuing convenient living. Access to commuter routes, great schools and community amenities add to the appeal of this great home. Call to schedule your private tour today!

19. 1996-03-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,003 · $500/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,003 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$6,003
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$7,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 1996-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,003 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.