5122 Sedona Creek Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$325,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,400 sqft lot $128/sqft · 21% below area Est $378k · 14% under $121/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, featuring a modern open-concept kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. Soaring ceilings create a bright and airy feel throughout. The smart layout includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the first floor—ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in highly acclaimed Katy ISD with access to resort-style amenities including a pool, fitness center, trails, clubhouse, and lazy river. Tenant-occupied through the end of August.

Key facts

• 5,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-663 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,855 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.87%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,759
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27034 Flower Isle Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,262 (-11%)	1mo	$375,315	$166	69
2237 Sonder Shore Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,554 (+1%)	1mo	$379,990	$149	68
5627 Pearl Vista Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,449 (-3%)	1mo	$419,115	$171	66
5619 Pearl Vista Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,432 (-4%)	1mo	$394,889	$162	66
4669 Cleo Day Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,488 (-2%)	1mo	$359,990	$145	64
27022 Sunset Palace Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,754 (+9%)	1mo	$422,651	$153	60
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+10%)	0mo	$499,236	$179	57
27018 Turtle Vista Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,400 (-5%)	0mo	$411,990	$172	55
27030 Turtle Vista Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,400 (-5%)	1mo	$407,990	$170	55
27411 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,206 (-13%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	48
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-14%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	42
5814 Capri Forest Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,165 (-15%)	1mo	$314,900	$145	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-103,218
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.94×
• Total profit: $-176,345
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$1,029 /mo · $12,343/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$121
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $-663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,868

Max offer price $246,855

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	0.26mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	44d	1	0.57mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.57mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.58mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	24d	1	0.64mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.69mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	44d	1	0.75mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	0.99mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.19mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.19mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	13d	1	1.21mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.21mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.22mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	44d	1	1.23mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.23mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.24mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	13d	1	1.27mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.28mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	1.35mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.37mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	44d	1	1.44mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.44mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	22d	1	1.45mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $121 · $1,452/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $325,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $360,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-02-02
    status Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    This stunning home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, featuring a modern open-concept kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. Soaring ceilings create a bright and airy feel throughout. The smart layout includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the first floor—ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in highly acclaimed Katy ISD with access to resort-style amenities including a pool, fitness center, trails, clubhouse, and lazy river. Tenant-occupied through the end of August.

15. 2025-12-03
    historical 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    This stunning home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, featuring a modern open-concept kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. Soaring ceilings create a bright and airy feel throughout. The smart layout includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the first floor—ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in highly acclaimed Katy ISD with access to resort-style amenities including a pool, fitness center, trails, clubhouse, and lazy river. Tenant-occupied through the end of August.

16. 2025-09-03
    listed $360,000 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    This stunning home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, featuring a modern open-concept kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. Soaring ceilings create a bright and airy feel throughout. The smart layout includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the first floor—ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in highly acclaimed Katy ISD with access to resort-style amenities including a pool, fitness center, trails, clubhouse, and lazy river. Tenant-occupied through the end of August.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,343 · $1,029/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,343 · $1,029/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$12,343
• − Insurance: −$2,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,908
• − Management: −$2,908
• − HOA: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$13,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Katy ISD offers a modern open-concept kitchen, two bathrooms, and a clean exterior. It is currently tenant-occupied and ready for a new owner or tenant to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add value and appeal to the kitchen space.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing the home's value and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add value and appeal to the kitchen space. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing the home's value and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $360,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+145.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,343 · +486.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.