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5122 Sedona Creek Dr
D- Composite 39.53
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.8/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.9/30.0
  • Schools +5.4/10.0
  • 1% rule +4.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • DSCR +0.2/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$325,000

5122 Sedona Creek Dr · Katy, TX 77493
4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market
Built 2024 Good condition 5,400 sqft lot 2-car garage $128/sqft · 21% below area Est $378k · 14% under $121/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This stunning home offers 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, featuring a modern open-concept kitchen with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and a stylish backsplash. Soaring ceilings create a bright and airy feel throughout. The smart layout includes 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on the first floor—ideal for guests or multi-generational living. Enjoy a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Located in highly acclaimed Katy ISD with access to resort-style amenities including a pool, fitness center, trails, clubhouse, and lazy river. Tenant-occupied through the end of August.

Key facts

  • 5,400 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (24.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (8.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $247k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
  • Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $246,855 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.91%
Cap rate
3.93%
Cash-on-cash
-8.46%
DSCR
0.62
GRM
9.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$377,759
List price
$325,000
Delta
-4.70%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4960 Pismo Ray Dr 0.33mi 4/2.5 2,412 (-5%) 1mo $284,999 $118 74
27034 Flower Isle Ln 0.27mi 4/3.0 2,262 (-11%) 2mo $375,315 $166 68
4669 Cleo Day Dr 0.69mi 4/3.0 2,488 (-2%) 2mo $359,990 $145 63
27219 Blue Pool Dr 0.64mi 4/2.5 2,657 (+5%) 0mo $419,900 $158 60
4605 Green Arobol Ln 0.69mi 4/2.5 2,430 (-4%) 1mo $339,990 $140 58
5858 Havana Mist Dr 0.70mi 4/3.0 2,393 (-6%) 0mo $325,640 $136 58
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr 0.52mi 4/3.5 2,782 (+10%) 2mo $499,236 $179 56
27018 Turtle Vista Dr 0.72mi 4/3.5 2,400 (-5%) 2mo $411,990 $172 54
27030 Turtle Vista Dr 0.72mi 4/3.5 2,400 (-5%) 2mo $407,990 $170 54
4784 Luna Landing Dr 0.72mi 4/3.0 2,168 (-14%) 2mo $335,990 $155 41
27539 Aster Green Dr 0.73mi 4/3.5 2,905 (+15%) 1mo $389,990 $134 39
5814 Capri Forest Dr 0.68mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,165 (-15%) 2mo $314,900 $145 35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.9%
Equity multiple
-0.12×
Total profit
$-101,713
Equity at exit
$48,459
10-year hold
IRR
-83.4%
Equity multiple
-0.90×
Total profit
$-172,783
Equity at exit
$28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
199 active · 57 under contract
Months of supply
11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$365,000 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market
85 d
This list price
14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

Rents YoY
-0.8%
Active inventory
3403
Price-to-rent
9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,972 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,704
Tax from tax record
$1,029 /mo · $12,343/yr
Insurance
$135
HOA
$121
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$624
Net cashflow
$-641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,784
Max offer price $246,855
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-457 -5% $-549 +0% $-641 +5% $-733 +10% $-825
Rent -10% $-876 -5% $-759 +0% $-641 +5% $-524 +10% $-406
Rate -1.0pp $-478 -0.5pp $-559 base $-641 +0.5pp $-725 +1.0pp $-811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$81,250
Closing costs
$9,750
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX 3.0–4.0 2.5–3.5 1705 $2,957 $1.73 0d 25 0.26mi
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2410 $2,650 $1.10 28d 1 0.28mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.5 2752 $3,095 $1.12 2d 1 0.40mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX 5.0 3.0 2816 $3,150 $1.12 13d 1 0.50mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX 3.0 2.5 2000 $2,400 $1.20 93d 1 0.57mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2039 $3,000 $1.47 39d 1 0.57mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2039 $3,000 $1.47 23d 1 0.57mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX 3.0 2.5 2116 $3,050 $1.44 4d 1 0.57mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2039 $3,000 $1.47 70d 1 0.57mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX 3.0 2.0 1824 $2,500 $1.37 2d 1 0.58mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX 2.0–4.0 2.0–3.0 1890 $3,949 $2.09 13d 24 0.58mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.5 2135 $2,500 $1.17 28d 1 0.59mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 2156 $2,595 $1.20 19d 1 0.64mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX 5.0 3.0 2680 $3,995 $1.49 73d 1 0.64mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2100 $2,600 $1.24 0d 1 0.69mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2598 $2,400 $0.92 93d 1 0.75mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX 4.0 2.5 1785 $2,200 $1.23 8d 1 0.99mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2294 $3,000 $1.31 0d 1 0.99mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2294 $3,000 $1.31 66d 1 0.99mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX 5.0 3.5 2788 $3,200 $1.15 2d 1 1.08mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 1964 $2,100 $1.07 21d 1 1.12mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX 5.0 2.5 2408 $3,995 $1.66 73d 1 1.19mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.5 2240 $3,395 $1.52 47d 1 1.19mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.5 2263 $2,500 $1.10 62d 1 1.21mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 1776 $2,355 $1.33 62d 1 1.21mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 1776 $2,170 $1.22 21d 1 1.22mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX 5.0 3.0 2156 $3,850 $1.79 93d 1 1.23mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX 5.0 3.0 2156 $2,499 $1.16 41d 1 1.23mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 1776 $2,170 $1.22 21d 1 1.24mi
6303 Golden Seaton Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 1908 $2,350 $1.23 11d 1 1.25mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX 5.0 4.0 2490 $3,000 $1.20 62d 1 1.27mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX 5.0 4.0 2490 $3,000 $1.20 39d 1 1.27mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX 5.0 4.0 2490 $3,000 $1.20 0d 1 1.27mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX 4.0 2.0 1776 $2,195 $1.24 21d 1 1.28mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX 4.0 4.0 2479 $3,000 $1.21 13d 1 1.35mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX 4.0 4.0 2479 $3,000 $1.21 40d 1 1.35mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX 4.0 4.0 2479 $3,000 $1.21 32d 1 1.35mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX 5.0 2.5 1947 $3,695 $1.90 53d 1 1.37mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX 4.0 3.0 2279 $2,300 $1.01 42d 1 1.37mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX 5.0 3.0 2890 $2,406 $0.83 93d 1 1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Managed by EVERGREEEN LIFESTYLES ManagementAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyBuilt in 2024Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction
Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction2024 construction
Exterior features
Back yard fenceTennis court(s)Subdivision lot featuresSmoke detector(s)

Interior

Kitchen
Gas ovenGas rangeENERGY STAR qualified appliancesGranite countersPantry and walk-in pantryBreakfast bar
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 12.4)Bedroom on first floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (13 x 11)Bedroom on second floor (13.6 x 13)
Flooring
CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms
3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningThermostat (programmable)
Interior features
Breakfast barDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboLiving/dining roomPantry and walk-in pantryCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for indoor air quality
Laundry & utility
Tankless water heater

HOA detail $121/mo · $1,452/yr

Likely covers
poolgym

Listing history 24 events

  1. 2026-06-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
  2. 2026-06-29
    days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
  3. 2026-06-28
    days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
  4. 2026-06-27
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
  5. 2026-06-26
    days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
  6. 2026-06-24
    days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
  7. 2026-06-22
    days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
  8. 2026-06-21
    days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
  9. 2026-06-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
  10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
  11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
  12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
  13. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
  14. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on marketlisting id $325,000 Active 1 DOM
  15. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,000 Active 218 DOM
  16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 217 DOM
  17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 214 DOM
  18. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 213 DOM
  19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 212 DOM
  20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 211 DOM
  21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 210 DOM
  22. 2026-02-02
    status Active 587-char remark
  23. 2025-12-03
    historical 587-char remark
  24. 2025-09-03
    listed $360,000 Active 587-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$12,343 · $1,029/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$12,343 · $1,029/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,667
− Mortgage interest
−$18,205
− Property taxes
−$12,343
− Insurance
−$1,625
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,853
− Management
−$2,853
− HOA
−$1,452
− Depreciation
−$9,455
Taxable loss
−$13,119
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,149
After-tax cash flow
$-4,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Katy ISD offers a modern open-concept kitchen, two bathrooms, and a clean exterior. It is currently tenant-occupied and ready for a new owner or tenant to move in.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can add value and appeal to the kitchen space.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
  • Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing the home's value and rental appeal.
D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Katy ISD
NCES district ID
4825170
Math proficiency
61% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency
63% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$90,312
Composite
56.59/100
National rank
#1146
State rank
#29 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

Score
76/100
State rank
#111
US rank
#3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
413,575
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
71,484
Household income
$118,464
Rent vs Own
20.4% rent · 79.6% own
Severe rent burden
21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity
White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 20%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-9.7% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-01 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-06-08 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-06-08 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-02 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2025-12-03 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-09-03 Listed $360,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+145.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,343 · +486.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…