8103 Hurst Forest Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$489,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,186 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1996 8,999 sqft lot Est $382k · 28% over $51/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Where Luxury, Lifestyle & Location Come Together. Tucked beneath a canopy of mature trees, this beautifully updated home offers the space, flexibility, & amenities today's buyers dream about. Rich hardwood floors, a stunning kitchen with quartz countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless appliances, & an oversized island create the perfect setting for everyday living & entertaining. The spacious floor plan includes a dedicated home office, game room, & versatile flex space. The primary suite features hardwood flooring & an updated bath with travertine finishes. Step outside to your own backyard retreat with a pool & professional landscaping. Boat owners w

Key facts

• Flex space
• Updated home
• Stunning kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• DEDICATED HOME OFFICE
• GAME ROOM
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (ACIA) with annual fee for recreation facilities; Association amenities include marina, boat ramp, park, pool, and trash service; Community features: community pool, golf

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1996; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Front porch; Storage shed; Shed(s); Near golf course; Subdivision setting; Backs to greenbelt/park; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Wine refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Pots & pan drawers
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 18 x 13); Multiple secondary bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 14 x 14, 11 x 10, 13 x 10, 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Tile; Travertine; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Separate shower and jetted tub in primary bath; Double vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air; Electric cooling; Attic fan
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Bath in primary bedroom; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Quartz counters; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Wired for sound; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $455k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pineforest El (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 609 students, 49% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $490k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,257 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $382,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19510 Evening Shades Ct	0.39mi	5/3.0	3,165 (-1%)	1mo	$380,000	$120	80
19702 Sweet Forest Ln	0.12mi	5/2.5	2,828 (-11%)	0mo	$299,900	$106	73
19507 Sandy Shore Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,161 (-1%)	2mo	$319,000	$101	73
8335 Bunker Bend Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,423 (+7%)	2mo	$370,000	$108	61
7627 Water Wood Trl	0.72mi	5/3.5	3,028 (-5%)	1mo	$519,000	$171	56
8503 Pines Place Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,826 (-11%)	2mo	$139,000	$49	53
8503 Rebawood Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,471 (+9%)	0mo	$279,000	$80	50
20115 Hickory Wind Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,875 (-10%)	2mo	$385,000	$134	48
19711 Powerscourt Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,892 (-9%)	3mo	$400,000	$138	43
20403 Atascocita Shores Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,805 (-12%)	2mo	$344,900	$123	39
19718 Powerscourt Dr	0.65mi	4/4.5 (-1)	3,643 (+14%)	1mo	$445,000	$122	34
20302 Arrow Cove Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,630 (+14%)	3mo	$254,000	$70	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-38,313
• Equity at exit: $119,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-28,750
• Equity at exit: $126,231

Cash invested: $137,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,553 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,306/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$956
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,346

Max offer price $489,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $302	+0% $164	+5% $25	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-16	+0% $164	+5% $343	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $288	base $164	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,475
• Closing costs: $14,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.15mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	23d	1	0.76mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	3d	1	0.78mi
19706 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2753	$2,550	$0.93	25d	1	1.06mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $489,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 671-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $489,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,306 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,965 · $747/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,660/yr (+$138/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,442
• − Property taxes: −$7,306
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,370
• − Management: −$4,370
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$14,252
• Taxable loss: −$6,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $3,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+281.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $489,900 HARMLS
• 1996-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,306 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.