19 Cedar Ln · Escudilla Bonita, NM 87829

$73,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,886 sqft · Other · 88 Days on market

Built 1980 6.43 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled at 19 Cedar Lane, this charming property offers a world of potential and a canvas for your creative vision. With "good bones" as its foundation, this fixer-upper features a bright, open floor plan where the large kitchen seamlessly flows into the living room-perfect for gathering with loved ones. While it may need a little TLC to truly shine, the setting more than compensates. The gently sloping lot is adorned with mature cedar and pinon trees, providing both privacy and tranquility. Imagine evenings spent under unobstructed night skies, soaking in the breathtaking New Mexico sunsets that paint the horizon in hues of gold and crimson. Conveniently located near Springervill

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Mature pinon trees
• Gently sloping lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GENTLY SLOPING LOT
• MATURE CEDAR TREES
• MATURE PINON TREES
• UNOBSTRUCTED NIGHT SKIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Built on existing foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Natural vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified
• Interior features: Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#161 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Quemado Independent Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 29 in NM (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($508 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Catron County population projected at -52% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $69,090 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.65%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $55,016
• Equity at exit: $34,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $131,428
• Equity at exit: $55,383

Cash invested: $20,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87829

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$385
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $164/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $544

Max offer price $73,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $739	-5% $718	+0% $697	+5% $676	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $641	+0% $697	+5% $754	+10% $810
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $716	base $697	+0.5pp $678	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,375
• Closing costs: $2,205
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,500 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,500 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,500 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,500 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $73,500 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,500 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,500 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,500 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,500 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $73,500 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,500 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,500 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,500 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $73,500
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $164 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 257.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,117
• − Property taxes: −$164
• − Insurance: −$368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$2,138
• Taxable income: $7,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,822
• After-tax cash flow: $6,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quemado Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502130
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 50.00%
• Median HH income: $38,381
• Composite: 41.46/100
• National rank: #3464
• State rank: #10 of 29 in NM

Livability — Escudilla Bonita

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #21940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escudilla Bonita, NM
• Population (ZIP): 840

Population outlook (Catron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847 people
• By 2030: 2,487 · -12.6%
• By 2040: 1,821 · -36.0%
• By 2050: 1,366 · -52.0%
• By 2075: 909 · -68.1%
• By 2100: 617 · -78.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 17% Lithuanian 15% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Catron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.2% · R 74.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.8pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+47.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+34.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 98.3591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $73,500 NMMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $75,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $164 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.