2013 4th St · Madison, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 21 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +14.4/30.0
- 1% rule +4.9/10.0
- DSCR +4.4/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Appreciation +3.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.2/10.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
$119,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
Key facts
- Huge basement
- Newer roof
- Extra storage shed
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($277/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (0.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#861 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
- Madison CUSD 12 (suburban): math 2% / reading 4% proficiency, ranked #619 of 620 in IL (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.99% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.53%
- Cash-on-cash
- 0.83%
- DSCR
- 1.04
- GRM
- 8.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $94,385
- List price
- $119,000
- Delta
- 26.08%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 6th St | 0.11mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,650 (+3%) | 0mo | $124,900 | $76 | 77 |
| 1036 Greenwood St | 0.58mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,696 (+6%) | 2mo | $99,900 | $59 | 54 |
| 1710 Edwardsville Rd | 0.37mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,390 (-13%) | 15mo | $121,000 | $87 | 37 |
| 1615 4th St | 0.52mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,792 (+12%) | 20mo | $140,000 | $78 | 29 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -14.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.47×
- Total profit
- $-17,742
- Equity at exit
- $17,743
- IRR
- -6.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.60×
- Total profit
- $-13,265
- Equity at exit
- $10,289
Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 62060
- Home prices YoY
- -2.0%
- Active inventory
- 10
- Price-to-rent
- 8.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,181 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$624
- Tax from tax record
- −$237 /mo · $2,839/yr
- Insurance
- −$50
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$248
- Net cashflow
- $23
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $29,750
- Closing costs
- $3,570
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-04-15status Active 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2026-03-31status Pending 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2026-01-12status Active 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2026-01-12price $119,000 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2025-11-22status Active 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2025-11-15status Pending 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2025-11-02status Active 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2025-10-26price $129,000 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2025-07-28$139,000 Active 683-char remark
Show marketing remark (683 chars)
Move-In Ready & Fully Renovated! First time this home has been offered out of the family in 70 years! This extra-clean home has been completely updated and is ready for you to move right in. Features include a spacious basement with plenty of storage, a huge 24' x 28' man-sized garage, plus an additional 12' x 16' storage shed with a garage door. Recent updates include a newer roof, siding, windows, and interior paint. Enjoy a full backyard privacy fence along with a gated front yard and driveway entry. Nestled on a quiet street close to schools, this spacious home offers all the room your family needs. Don’t miss out—call Bill today to schedule your showing!
-
2024-10-01historical
-
2024-08-08status Pending
-
2024-07-11$139,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $2,839 · $237/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,839 · $237/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,176
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,666
- − Property taxes
- −$2,839
- − Insurance
- −$595
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,134
- − Management
- −$1,134
- − Depreciation
- −$3,462
- Taxable loss
- −$1,653
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$397
- After-tax cash flow
- $674/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Madison CUSD 12
- NCES district ID
- 1723970
- Math proficiency
- 2% ▼ -3.50%
- Reading proficiency
- 4% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $23,597
- Composite
- 1.5/100
- National rank
- #10107
- State rank
- #619 of 620 in IL
Livability — Madison
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #861
- US rank
- #16841
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Madison, IL
- City population
- 3,619
- Population (ZIP)
- 3,619
Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 258,371 people
- By 2030
- 251,523 · -2.7%
- By 2040
- 233,640 · -9.6%
- By 2050
- 213,042 · -17.5%
- By 2075
- 165,255 · -36.0%
- By 2100
- 123,953 · -52.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (66%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 66% White 23% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Madison
- 2024 margin
- R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -4.03%
- Current HPI
- 197.5454
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
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Price history
-14.4% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-15 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-12 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-12 Price Changed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-15 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-26 Price Changed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-28 Listed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-10-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-08-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2024-07-11 Listed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+4.7%/yrLatest (2024): $2,839 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…