8957 Dayton Pike Unit B · Soddy-Daisy, TN 37379

$107,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 1980 0.40 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THDA Home. Handyman special. Plenty of potential in home but significant work needed. Great opportunity to fix and develop instant equity.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 137 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.0% in Soddy-Daisy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Daisy Elementary (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #191 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 381 students, 0% FRL); Soddy Daisy Middle School (math 34% / reading 26%, grade F, #98 of 333 statewide, top 32%, 465 students, 0% FRL); Soddy Daisy High School (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 1,085 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $743 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.51%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,783
• Equity at exit: $16,014

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $34,950
• Equity at exit: $9,286

Cash invested: $30,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37379

• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,611/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $107,400

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $401	+0% $364	+5% $327	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $308	+0% $364	+5% $419	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $391	base $364	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,850
• Closing costs: $3,222
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9449 Dayton Pike Soddy Daisy, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,613	$1.68	15d	16	1.14mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   price $107,400
3. 2025-11-21
   listed $117,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,016
• − Property taxes: −$1,611
• − Insurance: −$537
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,124
• Taxable income: $2,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$677
• After-tax cash flow: $3,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Soddy-Daisy

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Soddy-Daisy, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 29,430
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 29,430
• Household income: $88,875
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.54%
• Current HPI: 281.6231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $107,400 GCAR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $117,400 GCAR