14450 NE 192nd Ln · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$62,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 656 sqft · Manufactured public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1990 7,841 sqft lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. This little 2/2 is right in the middle of the Ocala State forest, if hunting, fishing, the springs you name it if you love the outdoors this might be a great little property for you. Whether you want to use it as a rental or just a weekend getaway spot or even just tired of the rat race this is a nice place to escape to. Priced to sell!!!!!!!!

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 234 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.18%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $27,227
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $71,894
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,153/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $570

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $604	+0% $586	+5% $568	+10% $551
Rent	-10% $482	-5% $534	+0% $586	+5% $638	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $602	base $586	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   status Active
3. 2026-02-26
   historical
4. 2026-02-25
   listed $58,000 Active
5. 2025-10-23
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-23
   historical
7. 2025-09-20
   price $62,500
8. 2025-05-21
   price $67,500
9. 2025-04-18
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$1,153
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $6,433
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,544
• After-tax cash flow: $5,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-27.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,153 · +282.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.