488 Marina Ln · Tavares, FL 32778

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Condo public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a desirable 55+ community, this move-in-ready residence combines modern comfort with relaxed lake-area living. Almost everything has been updated, including new windows, new AC Unit, new flooring including the subfloors, bathroom showers and vanities and even new plumbing in the house; The kitchen has been updated with new cabinets and the stove is able to be gas or electric; Fresh paint, new trim and fixtures and even new doors. The laundry room is inside and conveniently located off of the main bedroom; The roof was improved a few years ago and includes two layers. Located close to downtown and to the entertainment. Just minutes from the waterfront in America’s Seaplane

Key facts

• Renovated home
• 4,080 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN TAVARES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single family residence; Zoning: RMH-S; Lot roughly 0.09 acres (about 0 to less than 1/4 acre); Asphalt road frontage; Living area reported as 1,152 square feet
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Awnings; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Disposal; Laminate flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-245/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,545 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,245
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,206
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $216,392

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $42	+0% $-20	+5% $-83	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-87	+0% $-20	+5% $46	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $36	base $-20	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 S Lake Ave Lot 1 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1016	$1,200	$1.18	0d	1	0.33mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	26d	1	0.36mi
542 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	26d	1	0.65mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	26d	1	0.74mi
743 E Alfred St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	26d	1	0.79mi
380 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,399	$1.87	16d	1	0.87mi
1105 N Rockingham Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,650	$2.05	7d	1	0.87mi
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	18d	1	0.90mi
1403 E Alfred St Unit 200 Tavares, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	20d	1	1.19mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	24d	1	1.26mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	26d	1	1.29mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	5d	1	1.34mi
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	20d	1	1.41mi
30024 Tavares Ridge Blvd Unit 62 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	26d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Active
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$54/mo · 54.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.