401 Knox Ave · Vine Grove, KY 40175

$124,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1955 9,278 sqft lot Est $159k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and full of potential, 401 Knox Ave in Vine Grove features neutral paint and flooring throughout, creating a bright, clean canvas for your personal style. This home offers a functional layout with inviting living spaces and plenty of natural light. Tucked into a quiet, established neighborhood yet close to local amenities, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turn-key opportunity.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Functional layout
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• INVITING LIVING SPACES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch residence; One story; Built in 1955
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No fencing indicated

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Five closets; Basement: None; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,688
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Glenwood Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	944 (+4%)	1mo	$180,000	$191	83
508 Edgebrook Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+12%)	5mo	$150,000	$146	68
409 Locust St	0.54mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	12mo	$180,000	$200	63
810 Charlene Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+10%)	8mo	$174,000	$174	62
207 Otter Creek Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	932 (+2%)	13mo	$85,000	$91	60
304 Brown St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	822 (-10%)	3mo	$149,999	$182	52
106 Debbie Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,029 (+13%)	13mo	$172,750	$168	50
401 Highland Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	962 (+6%)	9mo	$175,000	$182	45
324 High St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+5%)	16mo	$50,000	$52	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,132
• Equity at exit: $18,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $52,088
• Equity at exit: $10,721

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40175

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,564/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $124,000
2. 2026-04-27
   price $124,000 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Move-in ready and full of potential, 401 Knox Ave in Vine Grove features neutral paint and flooring throughout, creating a bright, clean canvas for your personal style. This home offers a functional layout with inviting living spaces and plenty of natural light. Tucked into a quiet, established neighborhood yet close to local amenities, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turn-key opportunity.

3. 2026-03-18
   listed $155,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Move-in ready and full of potential, 401 Knox Ave in Vine Grove features neutral paint and flooring throughout, creating a bright, clean canvas for your personal style. This home offers a functional layout with inviting living spaces and plenty of natural light. Tucked into a quiet, established neighborhood yet close to local amenities, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turn-key opportunity.

4. 2026-03-18
   listed $155,000 Active 435-char remark

   Show marketing remark (435 chars)

   Move-in ready and full of potential, 401 Knox Ave in Vine Grove features neutral paint and flooring throughout, creating a bright, clean canvas for your personal style. This home offers a functional layout with inviting living spaces and plenty of natural light. Tucked into a quiet, established neighborhood yet close to local amenities, it's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors looking for a turn-key opportunity.

5. 2024-02-21
   status Active
6. 2024-02-06
   status Pending
7. 2024-02-06
   historical
8. 2024-02-02
   price $179,900
9. 2024-01-26
   listed $184,900 Active
10. 2023-07-07
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
11. 2023-07-06
    soldstatus $165,000
12. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
13. 2023-05-12
    status Pending
14. 2023-05-12
    status Pending
15. 2023-05-11
    status Active
16. 2023-05-11
    price $154,999
17. 2023-05-10
    price $154,998
18. 2023-05-03
    price $169,998
19. 2023-05-03
    historical
20. 2023-05-03
    listed $169,999 Active
21. 2023-04-17
    listed $169,999 Active
22. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $135,000
23. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $135,000
24. 2021-04-14
    listed $135,000
25. 2019-01-24
    soldstatus $20,000
26. 2019-01-24
    soldstatus $20,000
27. 2019-01-04
    listed $56,000
28. 2019-01-04
    listed $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,564
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $4,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $5,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Vine Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #5837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vine Grove, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.55%
• Current HPI: 246.3715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+121.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $124,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $124,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $155,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $155,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-21 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-06 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $179,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $184,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-07-07 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $165,000 HKARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2023-05-12 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-05-11 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $154,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $154,998 HKARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $169,998 HKARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Listed $169,999 HKARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-04-17 Listed $169,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $135,000 HKARMLS
• 2021-04-14 Listed $135,000 HKARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Sold (MLS) $20,000 HKARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-01-04 Listed $56,000 HKARMLS
• 2019-01-04 Listed $56,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+28.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,564 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.