309 S Birchlane Dr · Carbondale, IL 62901

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Other · 16 Days on market

Built 1963 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath home that is currently rented for $675, Newer Kitchen Cabinets, flooring and just painted. New baseboard heat and nice back yard. Close to Schools, Town and shopping.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Close to schools
• Back yard

Tags

• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS
• BACK YARD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street parking spaces; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Wood siding and frame construction; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approx. 65 x 117; Lot less than 0.25 acre; Unincorporated location

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen on the main level (approx. 14 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Master bedroom on the main level (approx. 12 x 11); Second bedroom on the main level (approx. 12 x 11); Third bedroom on the main level (approx. 11 x 8)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring in living room and bedrooms; Ceramic tile flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($938 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.9% in Carbondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, crime F, employment F.
• Carbondale Chsd 165 (urban): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #279 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carbondale Comm H S (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #175 of 693 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,001 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.10%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $4,389
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $26,493
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62901

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,458/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $689

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 S Lewis Ln Carbondale, IL	3.0	1.0	622	$750	$1.20	43d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 189-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $59,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,458 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,458
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$901
• − Management: −$901
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $1,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$384
• After-tax cash flow: $1,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carbondale Chsd 165
• NCES district ID: 1708370
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $22,075
• Composite: 23.92/100
• National rank: #7787
• State rank: #279 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carbondale

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7806

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carbondale, IL
• County: Jackson County · 22,946 people
• City population: 22,946
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• Population (ZIP): 22,946
• Household income: $35,089
• Rent vs Own: 70.0% rent · 30.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2038.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,093 people
• By 2030: 59,628 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 59,495 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 58,811 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 57,683 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 55,337 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.8pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+10.3 2008: D+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.62%
• Current HPI: 88.7209
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• Metro: Carbondale-Marion, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-73.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $221,760 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,458 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.