111 Shepard Ave · Dundee, FL 33838

$249,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1921 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence that underwent extensive renovations and improvements in June 2024, offering today's buyers peace of mind and modern finishes throughout. Major updates include a new roof (July 2024), new HVAC system, new windows, complete interior and exterior paint, fully renovated bathrooms, new flooring throughout, and stunning granite countertops. The kitchen comes complete with appliances included, making this home truly move-in ready. The property is currently serviced by a septic system, helping keep utility costs lower, while city sewer is available should a future owner wish to connect. A gas dryer connection is available, with a

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1921
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoned R-1; Lot roughly 0.34 acres (approx. 60 x 125); Living area source: Owner
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA indicated)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Public utilities available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area approximately 1,256 (owner provided)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other/unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $250k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,716 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $123,095
• Equity at exit: $224,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $372,406
• Equity at exit: $484,724

Cash invested: $69,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $214,170

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-129	+0% $-200	+5% $-271	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-270	+0% $-200	+5% $-130	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-137	base $-200	+0.5pp $-265	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,375
• Closing costs: $7,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	24d	1	0.51mi
610 Dundee Rd Unit 1 Dundee, FL	3.0	1.0	809	$1,850	$2.29	24d	1	0.53mi
702 Lemon Ave Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,800	$1.50	15d	1	0.63mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	4d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,500 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $249,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $258,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,976
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$7,258
• Taxable loss: −$6,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,649
• After-tax cash flow: $-750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+637.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-04 Listed $31,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1997-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,204 · +1538.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.