105 Vineyard Trce · Warner Robins, GA 31008

$167,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Other public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2001 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious four bedroom, 2 1/2 baths, with formal living and dining room. Den/keeping room off kitchen with wood burning fireplace and built in shelving. LVP throughout the home. Master bathroom suite comes with stand alone shower and free standing brand new tub, double sinks and linen closet. Master bedroom has sitting area and a large walk in closet. Three spacious bedrooms along with a full bath, single sink and linen closet. Laundry room has a half bath and an office/storage area. Kitchen has nice size island, stainless steel appliances along with refrigerator, smooth top range, two pantry areas and tile backsplash. Large wood deck to enjoy evening relaxation. Nice family neighborhood clo

Key facts

• Stand alone shower
• Double sinks
• Built in shelving

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• STAND ALONE SHOWER
• FREE STANDING TUB
• DOUBLE SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Springs Elementary (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #316 of 1,228 statewide, top 26%, 704 students, 66% FRL); Thomson Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #234 of 470 statewide, top 50%, 736 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 46% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $168k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,475 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,817
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $38,674
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31008

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Merlot Dr Byron, GA	2.0	2.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	44d	1	0.13mi
206 Beau Claire Cir Byron, GA	4.0	3.0	2145	$1,950	$0.91	44d	1	0.34mi
307 Timberwind Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.5	1908	$1,850	$0.97	13d	1	0.51mi
205 Fall Harvest Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	2259	$2,350	$1.04	21d	1	0.77mi
205 Fall Harvest Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	2259	$2,350	$1.04	44d	1	0.77mi
104 Village Walk Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	44d	1	0.84mi
111 Brighton Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	1.03mi
111 Brighton Dr Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,500	$0.84	44d	1	1.03mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	44d	1	1.40mi
807 Citrona Dr Byron, GA	4.0	2.5	2164	$2,020	$0.93	21d	1	1.40mi
110 Sea Oaks Ct Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,050	$1.00	44d	1	1.43mi
156 Amelia Dr Byron, GA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,300	$1.05	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $167,500 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $167,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $167,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-21
   price $167,500
10. 2026-01-15
    listed $155,000 Active
11. 2002-11-19
    soldstatus $64,000
12. 2000-10-11
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 168.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable income: $2,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $4,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• City population: 92,102
• Population (ZIP): 20,882

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.93%
• Current HPI: 208.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+885.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — CGMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $167,500 CGMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $155,000 CGMLS
• 2002-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.