445 Plaza Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 893 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1949 6,499 sqft lot $123/sqft · 98% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this modern and newly renovated home in Ferguson!! Upon entry you will notice the new plank flooring, new lighting and a warm new paint color throughout! The bathroom has been completely updated as well. There is nothing left to do but move in! This home would be perfect to add to your rental portfolio or for a first time homebuyer!!!

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,658
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 97.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
358 Plaza Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	891 (-0%)	6mo	$29,900	$34	83
400 S Harvey Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	875 (-2%)	5mo	$63,000	$72	80
221 S Harvey Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	864 (-3%)	3mo	$135,000	$156	70
809 Thomas Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-3%)	4mo	$59,900	$69	63
8350 Hill Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+2%)	1mo	$94,900	$104	62
8319 Hawkesbury Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	938 (+5%)	6mo	$79,900	$85	62
313 S Dade Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	5mo	$67,500	$88	61
406 Tiffin Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	944 (+6%)	5mo	$105,000	$111	60
115 Lawrence Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5	936 (+5%)	0mo	$64,500	$69	60
619 Carson Rd	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	901 (+1%)	5mo	$75,000	$83	57
405 Estelle Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	775 (-13%)	1mo	$79,900	$103	53
4815 Barbara Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (+11%)	6mo	$98,500	$100	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,748
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $53,508
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $858

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $288	+0% $257	+5% $226	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $210	+0% $257	+5% $304	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $285	base $257	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.04mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	24d	1	0.09mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	44d	1	0.14mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5530 B1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$915	$1.08	44d	1	0.14mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	44d	1	0.15mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	24d	1	0.17mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	21d	1	0.20mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	0.28mi
5300 Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	0.35mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	44d	1	0.38mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	44d	1	0.52mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	44d	1	0.56mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	13d	1	0.59mi
8408 Hill Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	24d	1	0.61mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	8d	1	0.61mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	24d	1	0.68mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	17d	1	0.73mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	5d	1	0.75mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	0.76mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	44d	1	0.78mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.80mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	8d	1	0.86mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	24d	1	0.89mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	8d	1	0.93mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	11d	1	0.94mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	18d	1	0.99mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	24d	1	0.99mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	8d	1	1.00mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	8d	1	1.10mi
5925 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	951	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.14mi
6042 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,495	$1.44	24d	1	1.17mi
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	24d	1	1.19mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	1.23mi
5900 Sheriton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	24d	1	1.24mi
9316 Koenig Cir Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	5d	5	1.25mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	24d	1	1.25mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	44d	1	1.31mi
7816 Dartmoor Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	44d	1	1.32mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	24d	1	1.37mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $110,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Welcome Home to this modern and newly renovated home in Ferguson!! Upon entry you will notice the new plank flooring, new lighting and a warm new paint color throughout! The bathroom has been completely updated as well. There is nothing left to do but move in! This home would be perfect to add to your rental portfolio or for a first time homebuyer!!!

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $115,000 Active 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Welcome Home to this modern and newly renovated home in Ferguson!! Upon entry you will notice the new plank flooring, new lighting and a warm new paint color throughout! The bathroom has been completely updated as well. There is nothing left to do but move in! This home would be perfect to add to your rental portfolio or for a first time homebuyer!!!

3. 2023-06-06
   soldstatus
4. 2023-06-01
   soldstatus Closed 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   INVESTMENT PROPERTY – Current property is vacant. Market rent shows potential rent as $950. Property has been professionally managed and maintained.

5. 2023-05-10
   status Pending 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   INVESTMENT PROPERTY – Current property is vacant. Market rent shows potential rent as $950. Property has been professionally managed and maintained.

6. 2023-04-29
   listed $46,000 Active 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   INVESTMENT PROPERTY – Current property is vacant. Market rent shows potential rent as $950. Property has been professionally managed and maintained.

7. 2018-03-13
   soldstatus $1,172,631
8. 2013-12-18
   soldstatus $640,000
9. 2003-09-03
   soldstatus $33,000
10. 1994-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $2,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-29 Listed $46,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,172,631 Public Records
• 2013-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $640,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $658 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.