8 Birch St · Brighton, VT 05846

$289,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,913 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 0.72 ac lot Est $362k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property contains 2 total units (one 2-bedroom unit and one 1-bedroom unit)

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with capacity for 1 car; Walkout, garage access for one unit
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200 Amp electric service; Electric company: Vermont Electric; Internet available by DSL, cable, or satellite; Cable and phone service by XFinity; Satellite service available; Fuel delivered by Butler
• Home design: Raised ranch style; Manufactured home; Existing construction; Blue exterior color; Built in 1980; Water view (Island Pond) but not waterfront
• Construction: Clapboard exterior; Shingle roof; Concrete basement foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lake view of Island Pond; Level lot in town, near schools; Paved driveway; Public maintained road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: One unit with 2 bedrooms; One unit with 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total; Each unit has one full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Hot air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement with walkout access; Basement partially finished with daylight windows and concrete floor; Basement includes exterior stairs and apartments (separate access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $289k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $250,000 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,557
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
356 Pleasant St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (+12%)	6mo	$259,000	$121	50
278 Dale Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,743 (-9%)	23mo	$329,900	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $79,017
• Equity at exit: $168,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $229,793
• Equity at exit: $294,277

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05846

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,522/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,337

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Cottage Rd Island Pond, VT	4.0	1.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	43d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listing id $289,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $289,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,522 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,007 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,484/yr (+$124/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,522
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$3,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Brighton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Island Pond, VT
• Population (ZIP): 1,144

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,715 people
• By 2030: 5,396 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 4,680 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 4,025 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 3,104 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 2,590 · -54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: R (+16.0) · D 39.4% · R 55.4% · Other 5.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: -16.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+18.0 2012: D+13.4 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 183.2072
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $289,000 PrimeMLS
• 2007-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,522 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.