The Crawford Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$298,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily · 680 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-level living at its finest can be found in the Crawford, featuring a large kitchen that would pamper any chef with counter and cabinet space, plus a walk-in pantry. A separate laundry room and mud room with a coat closet define spaces for clutter-free living. An open concept breakfast area and family room connect the kitchen and the backyard for effortless entertaining. The owner's suite also enjoys views of the backyard and separation from the two other bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 679 days

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN WITH PANTRY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AND MUD ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $298,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,672.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 680 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,453 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 680 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,672
• List price: $298,990
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2413 Sequoia Grove Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-0%)	1mo	$305,000	$167	86
2442 Goddard Green Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,809 (-2%)	2mo	$279,000	$154	66
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (+2%)	3mo	$260,000	$138	66
9911 Garnet Springs Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (+2%)	10mo	$270,000	$144	63
2614 Matterhorn Mist Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,099 (+14%)	10mo	$309,000	$147	58
9902 Smokey Quartz Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,930 (+5%)	7mo	$249,900	$129	54
9430 Peridot Green Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,659 (-10%)	0mo	$175,000	$105	52
9914 Pearl Creek Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,659 (-10%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	52
9930 Opal Rock Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,659 (-10%)	2mo	$235,000	$142	49
2429 Abbot Brook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-11%)	4mo	$210,000	$128	48
2807 Nickel Canyon Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-13%)	4mo	$226,500	$142	48
2409 Abbot Brook Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,070 (+13%)	10mo	$324,900	$157	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,448
• Equity at exit: $51,392

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-127,132
• Equity at exit: $29,801

Cash invested: $96,508 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,000 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,807
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,170/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,015

Max offer price $294,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-229	+0% $-348	+5% $-467	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-450	+0% $-348	+5% $-246	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-174	-0.5pp $-260	base $-348	+0.5pp $-437	+1.0pp $-528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,168
• Closing costs: $10,340
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	93d	1	0.33mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	93d	7	0.41mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,447	$1.41	0d	8	0.41mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	0.62mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	30d	1	0.72mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,287	$1.29	0d	17	0.77mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	93d	1	0.87mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.05mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	38d	1	1.06mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,225	$1.43	8d	1	1.17mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	1.20mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	16d	1	1.41mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	93d	1	1.43mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	62d	1	1.47mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	31d	1	1.49mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	56d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $298,990 Active 680 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $298,990 Active 678 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $298,990 Active 677 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $298,990 Active 676 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $298,990 Active 675 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $298,990 Active 672 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $298,990 Active 670 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $298,990 Active 669 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $298,990 Active 667 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $298,990 Active 665 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $298,990 Active 664 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $298,990 Active 663 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $298,990 Active 662 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $298,990 Active 661 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $298,990 Active 659 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $298,990 Active 658 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $298,990 Active 657 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $298,990 Active 656 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 654 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 653 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $298,990 Active 652 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $298,990 Active 651 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $298,990 Active 650 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $298,990 Active 648 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $298,990 Active 647 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $298,990 Active 646 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $298,990 Active 645 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $298,990 Active 644 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $298,990 Active 643 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $298,990 Active 642 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $298,990 Active 641 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $298,990 Active 640 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $298,990 Active 639 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $298,990 Active 638 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $298,990 Active 637 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $298,990 Active 635 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $298,990 Active 633 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $298,990 Active 632 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $298,990 Active 629 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $298,990 Active 628 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $298,990 Active 627 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $298,990 Active 626 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 624 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $298,990 Active 623 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $298,990 Active 620 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,990 Active 619 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $298,990 Active 618 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $298,990 Active 615 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,990 Active 614 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,990 Active 613 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,307
• − Property taxes: −$5,170
• − Insurance: −$1,723
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,472
• − Management: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$10,027
• Taxable loss: −$10,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,185–$27,555 screening

The Crawford Plan is a single-level home in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor touch-ups and cleaning can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $313,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $308,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-27 Listed $303,990 Zillow