2533 Island View Ln · Marietta-Alderwood, WA 98262

$695,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2021 8,276 sqft lot $689/sqft · 14% below area Est $908k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience nearly new, single-level living in this stout, barely lived-in two-bedroom home with durable, fine finishes—including solid wood trim, cabinetry, and doors—and sweeping views of Matia, Sucia, and the Strait of Georgia—ideal for low-maintenance living or those looking to age in place. Proud and solid as they come, this home offers peace of mind and effortless comfort. Enjoy stunning sunset views directly from the house, overlooking Matia and Sucia Islands. A large covered deck and thoughtfully designed yard feature a fenced garden with raised beds, plum and apple trees—perfect for permaculture-style gardening and creating a beautiful outdoor landscape that

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Raised beds
• Fenced garden

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• COVERED DECK
• FENCED GARDEN
• RAISED BEDS
• PLUM TREES
• APPLE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (68.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (70.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (70.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($612k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $695k implies a 595% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $205,048 (70.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.54%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 28.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $908,442
• List price: $695,000
• Delta: -23.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $207,387
• Equity at exit: $626,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $744,527
• Equity at exit: $1,350,232

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98262

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 28.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-2,683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,446

Max offer price $221,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,289	-5% $-2,486	+0% $-2,683	+5% $-2,879	+10% $-3,076
Rent	-10% $-2,845	-5% $-2,764	+0% $-2,683	+5% $-2,602	+10% $-2,521
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,333	-0.5pp $-2,506	base $-2,683	+0.5pp $-2,863	+1.0pp $-3,046

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $695,000
3. 2025-11-20
   listed $700,000 Active
4. 2016-11-04
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 2004-01-27
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,418 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,811 · $568/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,393/yr (+$199/mo · 54.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$46,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marietta-Alderwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,020

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 114.22%
• Current HPI: 434.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1163.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $695,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $700,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,418 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.