Rockford Plan · Silver Spring, PA 17050

$1

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 356 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to SPRING MEADOW RESERVE, a single-family home community located in Cumberland County, PA and the top-ranked Cumberland Valley School District. Neighborhood Details: - Most homesites back up to open space, offering privacy and great views - Enjoy a wide range of floor plans from convenient one-story to large two-story homes - Personalize your Spring Meadow Reserve home from our extensive collection of design studio offerings - Quality construction from EGStoltzfus, one of southcentral PA's most reputable builders Location and Amenities: - Great West Shore location with easy access to I-81, I-83, Routes 11 and 581, and PA Turnpike - Just a half-mile to Carlisle Pike and Silver Spring

Key facts

• Carlisle pike
• Easy access
• West shore location

Tags

• GREAT VIEWS
• QUALITY CONSTRUCTION
• WEST SHORE LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS
• CARLISLE PIKE

🏗️ New construction. The $1 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,463.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $506k (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 518194.5% of price.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,463
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Clover Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,854 (+7%)	2mo	$415,000	$224	70
223 Woods Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+13%)	3mo	$324,900	$166	57
219 Woods Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,890 (+9%)	17mo	$359,000	$190	56
510 Hogestown Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-12%)	6mo	$261,000	$172	51
9 Shady Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,527 (-12%)	1mo	$305,000	$200	51
325 Hogestown Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	12mo	$294,900	$196	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,333
• Equity at exit: $51,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-120,943
• Equity at exit: $29,869

Cash invested: $96,730 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17050

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 339

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,182/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,022

Max offer price $282,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,366
• Closing costs: $10,364
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
710 Hogestown Rd Mechanicsburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,000	$1.00	43d	1	0.69mi
98 Margaret Dr Mechanicsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	2015	$2,250	$1.12	43d	1	1.21mi
120 Morefield Way Mechanicsburg, PA	3.0	3.5	2000	$2,295	$1.15	43d	1	1.44mi
113 Annabel Way Mechanicsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,540	$1.34	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 346 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $1 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $514,900 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $514,900 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $514,900 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $514,900 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $514,900 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $514,900 Active 337 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    status Active
18. 2026-04-20
    historical
19. 2026-03-03
    status Active
20. 2026-03-03
    price $514,900
21. 2026-01-31
    historical
22. 2026-01-13
    price $505,900
23. 2026-01-01
    price $514,900
24. 2025-12-06
    price $510,900
25. 2025-05-24
    listed $505,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,351
• − Property taxes: −$5,182
• − Insurance: −$1,727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,369
• − Management: −$2,369
• − Depreciation: −$10,050
• Taxable loss: −$11,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Silver Spring

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,571
• Household income: $113,720
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.84%
• Current HPI: 241.7363
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $514,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $505,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $514,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $510,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-24 Listed $505,900 Zillow