8278 Locust St · Harrisville, NY 13648

$129,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 0.68 ac lot Est $124k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom home offering incredible flexibility and potential! An updated portion of the home provides extra living space that could serve as a home office, second family room, or even an additional bedroom. An upper-level area accessed by stairs expands the possibilities even further! While portions of the home retain their original character, a little TLC and your personal touches can truly make this property shine. Situated on an expansive 0.68-acre lot, there is plenty of room to enjoy outdoor living, gardening, recreation, or future projects. The property also features a detached 2-stall garage with additional attached storage space. Conveniently located within walking distanc

Key facts

• Extra living space
• 0.68-acre lot
• Upper-level area

Tags

• EXTRA LIVING SPACE
• UPPER-LEVEL AREA
• DETACHED 2-STALL GARAGE
• ATTACHED STORAGE SPACE
• 0.68-ACRE LOT
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Water available (public/not connected); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Corner lot; Irregular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 150 x 198

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil radiant heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Home office; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,020 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Harrisville Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #673 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $130k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,516
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14235 S Creek Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+10%)	6mo	$174,900	$94	67
8160 Elm St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,735 (+2%)	22mo	$88,000	$51	54
14326 Maple St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+1%)	23mo	$125,000	$73	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $54,439
• Equity at exit: $75,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $143,995
• Equity at exit: $131,230

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13648

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,189/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,056

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $398	+0% $361	+5% $324	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $301	+0% $361	+5% $421	+10% $480
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $394	base $361	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,692 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,189
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$566
• After-tax cash flow: $3,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613770
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,727
• Composite: 34.34/100
• National rank: #10205
• State rank: #673 of 755 in NY

Livability — Harrisville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1020
• US rank: #19931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,236

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 9% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Current HPI: 333.5396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+419.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $129,900 CNYIS
• 1996-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,189 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.