25555 N Windy Walk Dr #30 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$675,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,623 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1988 285 sqft lot $416/sqft · 13% above area Est $678k · at est. $458/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into the slope of Troon Mtn is this spacious S/W Contemporary 2Br & Den townhome in Skye Top. The Great Rm & Dining Rm open to the patio where the only sounds you will heard are birds & quail. Located in the guard gated community of Windy Walk, you will experience the comradery of passing friends out walking, or enjoying the community pool & club house. The upstairs Primary Suite & balcony looks to the majestic mountain where the evening sun paints everything in hues of pinks & purple. large kitchen with stack W/D.The Guest Br & the Loft provide for family time. The home is in excellent condition but priced to accommodate updating. A fireplace in the Great Rm and one in the Owner's Suite add another layer of charm. A generous 2 car garage enters to the eat-in Kitchen.

Key facts

• $458 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($634k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $206k; list at $675k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $470,925 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $677,920
• List price: $675,000
• Delta: -0.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #82	0.00mi	2/3.0	1,623 (0%)	6mo	$600,000	$370	91
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,545 (-5%)	9mo	$708,000	$458	76
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #94	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,556 (-4%)	17mo	$700,000	$450	71
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #58	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,865 (+15%)	14mo	$695,000	$373	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $141,713
• Equity at exit: $408,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $471,136
• Equity at exit: $728,691

Cash invested: $189,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,540
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$458
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$989
• Net cashflow: $-714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,613

Max offer price $548,883

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-332	-5% $-523	+0% $-714	+5% $-905	+10% $-1,096
Rent	-10% $-1,086	-5% $-900	+0% $-714	+5% $-528	+10% $-342
Rate	-1.0pp $-374	-0.5pp $-542	base $-714	+0.5pp $-889	+1.0pp $-1,067

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,750
• Closing costs: $20,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #77 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1575	$5,395	$3.43	26d	1	0.03mi
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #1 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1337	$3,950	$2.95	1d	1	0.03mi
25555 N Windy Walk Dr #77 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1545	$6,500	$4.21	5d	1	0.03mi
26627 N 104th Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2112	$4,950	$2.34	20d	1	0.85mi
11516 E Ranch Gate Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2145	$7,500	$3.50	46d	1	0.86mi
10437 E Monterra Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2145	$3,750	$1.75	7d	1	0.88mi
11533 E Bronco Trl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2090	$3,499	$1.67	17d	1	0.90mi
11591 E Desert Willow Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2090	$3,995	$1.91	46d	1	0.99mi
27000 N Alma School Pkwy #1012 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2144	$9,000	$4.20	26d	1	1.01mi
26362 N 115th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	1860	$4,500	$2.42	46d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $458 · $5,496/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $675,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $675,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $675,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $675,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $675,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $675,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $675,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $675,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $675,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $675,000 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Tucked into the slope of Troon Mtn is this spacious S/W Contemporary 2Br & Den townhome in Skye Top. The Great Rm & Dining Rm open to the patio where the only sounds you will heard are birds & quail. Located in the guard gated community of Windy Walk, you will experience the comradery of passing friends out walking, or enjoying the community pool & club house. The upstairs Primary Suite & balcony looks to the majestic mountain where the evening sun paints everything in hues of pinks & purple. large kitchen with stack W/D.The Guest Br & the Loft provide for family time. The home is in excellent condition but priced to accommodate updating. A fireplace in the Great Rm and one in the Owner's Suite add another layer of charm. A generous 2 car garage enters to the eat-in Kitchen.

11. 2026-04-10
    listed $700,000 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Tucked into the slope of Troon Mtn is this spacious S/W Contemporary 2Br & Den townhome in Skye Top. The Great Rm & Dining Rm open to the patio where the only sounds you will heard are birds & quail. Located in the guard gated community of Windy Walk, you will experience the comradery of passing friends out walking, or enjoying the community pool & club house. The upstairs Primary Suite & balcony looks to the majestic mountain where the evening sun paints everything in hues of pinks & purple. large kitchen with stack W/D.The Guest Br & the Loft provide for family time. The home is in excellent condition but priced to accommodate updating. A fireplace in the Great Rm and one in the Owner's Suite add another layer of charm. A generous 2 car garage enters to the eat-in Kitchen.

12. 1998-12-30
    soldstatus $206,416

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,455 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,593/yr (+$216/mo · 139.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,810
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$3,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,521
• − Management: −$4,521
• − HOA: −$5,496
• − Depreciation: −$19,636
• Taxable loss: −$20,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+227.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $675,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $700,000 ARMLS
• 1998-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $206,416 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.