10042 Cottontail Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$279,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,357 sqft lot Est $317k · 12% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover charm, open space & a peaceful cul-de-sac setting in Mill Creek Trails! This inviting 2-story home delivers Craftsman-style curb appeal, an oversize backyard & NEW CARPET TO BE INSTALLED PRIOR TO CLOSING! Step inside to soaring ceilings, & durable vinyl plank floors flowing through the main living area. The dining room sits off the island kitchen w/ granite counters, great prep space & easy connection for everyday living or entertaining. The downstairs primary suite offers privacy & comfort w/ a soaking tub, separate shower & walk-in closet. A decorative wrought iron staircase adds character while keeping the home bright & airy. Upstairs fea

Key facts

• 5,357 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: King; Annual association fee of $450

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Builder: Colina
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12 x 12; 13 x 10; 13 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Energy Star qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (33.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,200 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,863
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27237 Crevalle Jack Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (+1%)	2mo	$275,000	$131	83
27286 Axis Deer Trl	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-4%)	6mo	$300,142	$151	80
27310 Axis Deer Trl	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-4%)	6mo	$281,231	$141	78
10216 Longhorn Ridge Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-4%)	4mo	$320,142	$161	77
27207 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,988 (-4%)	3mo	$317,254	$160	75
27146 Grey Fox Run	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,948 (-6%)	4mo	$299,000	$153	75
10236 Badger Run Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,061 (-0%)	6mo	$289,990	$141	75
27278 Axis Deer Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	4mo	$299,635	$161	72
10280 Badger Run Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,173 (+5%)	7mo	$305,510	$141	71
27314 Axis Deer Trl	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	6mo	$297,525	$159	68
10155 Red Snapper Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,860 (-10%)	7mo	$283,416	$152	68
27313 Dobbin Huffsmith Rd	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,381 (+15%)	7mo	$400,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $112,884
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $348,598
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$672 /mo · $8,066/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,898

Max offer price $186,200

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-367	-5% $-446	+0% $-525	+5% $-604	+10% $-683
Rent	-10% $-702	-5% $-614	+0% $-525	+5% $-437	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-385	-0.5pp $-454	base $-525	+0.5pp $-598	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   historical $279,000
8. 2025-06-20
   historical
9. 2025-03-12
   listed $295,000 Active
10. 2024-08-12
    historical
11. 2024-05-30
    price $294,999
12. 2024-05-15
    listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,066 · $672/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,066 · $672/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$8,066
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$11,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, 2-story home in Mill Creek Trails offers a good condition with a good curb appeal and modern finishes. Minor updates can further enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — New carpet can improve comfort and add value.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit exterior can enhance safety and curb appeal.
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — New carpet can improve comfort and add value. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit exterior can enhance safety and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $294,999 HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $299,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,066 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.