4913 Elysian St · Houston, TX 77009

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $162/sqft · 29% below area Est $269k · 29% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is situated in the burgeoning Northside Area, ideal for remodeling or new construction. Surrounded by recently renovated and constructed properties, it boasts a prime location near Downtown Houston and major freeways. Room sizes should be verified.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 60 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1940
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (sizes: 10x11, 10x11, 10x10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Looscan El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 262 students, 98% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 605 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,977 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,226
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -29.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5105 Terry St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	19mo	$299,000	$260	70
1506 Amundsen St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-5%)	5mo	$295,000	$265	70
1509 Moody St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+9%)	16mo	$129,000	$101	68
1410 Caplin St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,209 (+3%)	0mo	$154,000	$127	60
2719 Milwaukee St	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,148 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$187	58
5106 Hardy St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+15%)	11mo	$325,000	$242	58
4802 Chapman St	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,305 (+11%)	18mo	$149,000	$114	53
4600 Terry St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-14%)	17mo	$214,900	$213	47
5710 Cherry St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (-11%)	1mo	$159,000	$153	47
5619 Chapman St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-13%)	17mo	$167,000	$164	43
702 Sue St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+11%)	11mo	$499,000	$383	37
5610 Chapman St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,013 (-14%)	14mo	$350,000	$346	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-40,055
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-55,791
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,649/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $173,732

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-38	+0% $-92	+5% $-146	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-156	+0% $-92	+5% $-28	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-44	base $-92	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	0.36mi
2110 Melbourne St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	26d	1	0.84mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	45d	1	0.86mi
6869 Arto St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	19d	6	1.10mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	45d	1	1.12mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	45d	1	1.22mi
6918 Irvington Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	45d	1	1.32mi
4111 Cavalcade St Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	757	$825	$1.09	45d	1	1.34mi
1007 Archer St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,923	$1.91	4d	1	1.36mi
1209 Cordell St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$2,200	$2.22	0d	1	1.39mi
207 Lindale St Unit 1316403P Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1119	$3,187	$2.85	1d	1	1.42mi
1617 Enid St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,417	$2.48	0d	53	1.45mi
7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$999	$1.14	9d	1	1.48mi
7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$930	$1.06	9d	1	1.48mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$975	$1.29	1d	1	1.48mi
4203 Hirsch Rd Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	758	$950	$1.25	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    listed $190,000 Active 262-char remark
14. 2026-04-18
    historical $190,000 262-char remark
15. 2026-01-31
    historical
16. 2026-01-01
    status Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-13
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2025-03-31
    historical
20. 2025-03-05
    status Active
21. 2025-02-28
    historical
22. 2024-11-06
    listed $190,000 Active
23. 2024-10-31
    historical
24. 2024-09-04
    price $200,000
25. 2024-09-04
    status Active
26. 2024-08-31
    historical
27. 2024-08-03
    price $210,000
28. 2024-08-03
    status Active
29. 2024-07-31
    historical
30. 2024-04-27
    listed $215,000 Active
31. 2024-03-31
    historical
32. 2023-12-01
    listed $225,000 Active
33. 2023-05-23
    historical
34. 2023-05-06
    listed $225,000 Active
35. 2000-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,649 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,649 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,649
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-03 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-06 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2000-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,649 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.