3100 S Kinney Rd #193 · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$45,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 442 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1983 Average condition $102/sqft · 32% below area Est $66k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.2

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 1BD/1BA home in the desirable Western Way RV Resort, a 55+ community offering low-maintenance living and great amenities. This 442 sq ft manufactured home features a bright living room, dining area, laminate flooring, electric range, stacked laundry space, and heat-pump heating/cooling. Enjoy a covered deck and low-care landscaping on a quiet paved street. Community perks include pool, spa, rec center, pickleball, billiards, library, craft room, and exercise facilities.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Rec center
• Spa

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• COVERED DECK
• LOW CARE LANDSCAPING
• POOL
• SPA
• REC CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($735 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.3% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 312 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.68%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,968
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -31.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5816 W Lazy Heart St	0.31mi	1/1.0	400 (-10%)	48mo	$63,000	$158	50
5716 W Bar X St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	550 (+24%)	11mo	$68,000	$124	42
5825 W Bar X St	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	550 (+24%)	17mo	$115,000	$209	37
5618 W Rocking Cir St	0.53mi	1/1.0	550 (+24%)	57mo	$55,000	$100	30
5557 W Rocking Circle St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (+13%)	40mo	$61,000	$122	25
5441 W Rocking Circle St	0.74mi	1/1.0	500 (+13%)	46mo	$93,000	$186	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $7,887
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $21,240
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $53,500 ($108/sqft)
• Median days on market: 130 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +38.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$154
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $285	+0% $270	+5% $254	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $241	+0% $270	+5% $299	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $281	base $270	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $45,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $45,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $45,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $45,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $45,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $45,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $45,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $45,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $45,000 Active 121 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $45,000 Active 120 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $45,000 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 111 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 110 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $45,000 Active 109 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $45,000 Active 108 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 107 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 106 DOM
32. 2026-06-25
    days on market $45,000 Active 104 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 98 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $45,000 Active 97 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 96 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 95 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 93 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $45,000 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 88 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 87 DOM
44. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 84 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 83 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 82 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 81 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 80 DOM
49. 2026-03-12
    listed $45,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Affordable 1BD/1BA home in the desirable Western Way RV Resort, a 55+ community offering low-maintenance living and great amenities. This 442 sq ft manufactured home features a bright living room, dining area, laminate flooring, electric range, stacked laundry space, and heat-pump heating/cooling. Enjoy a covered deck and low-care landscaping on a quiet paved street. Community perks include pool, spa, rec center, pickleball, billiards, library, craft room, and exercise facilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$706
• − Management: −$706
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $2,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$643
• After-tax cash flow: $2,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,210–$6,630 screening

This 442 sq ft manufactured home in Western Way RV Resort is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom walls — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace blinds — improves natural light and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and enhances resale value ↑
• Both update bathroom walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura N. Banks Elementary F AZ #888/1,109 Nat'l #36,424/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $45,000 MLSSAZ