15207 Government St · Gulfport, MS 39503

$157,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1969 0.32 ac lot $96/sqft · 22% below area Est $201k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Multiple Offers Received * Seller encourages you to get your offers in no later than Sunday, May 3rd at 5pm to be considered. Incredibly well kept by the same owner for more than 50 years! If you've been waiting for something with good bones, a great layout, and room to add value—this one is worth a closer look. For a buyer with vision, this is your chance to update at your own pace and truly make it yours. For the investor, it's a solid candidate for a cosmetic refresh and strong return. Bedrooms & baths sit a few steps up while the main living, kitchen, and dining are just below in a step-down layout. Living space features wet bar and sliding door that leads outside to a qu

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Double garage
• Covered patio

Tags

• WET BAR
• COVERED PATIO
• CORNER LOT
• DOUBLE GARAGE
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Built with brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Rain gutters; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 99 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Walk-in closet(s); Wet bar; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,296
• List price: $157,500
• Delta: -21.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15176 Royal St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-1%)	0mo	$214,900	$133	89
15236 Ginger Cv	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-0%)	2mo	$249,200	$153	86
15208 Cindy Cv	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,664 (+2%)	3mo	$150,000	$90	82
14663 Dawn Cv	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+8%)	3mo	$255,000	$143	66
15410 N Parkwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+1%)	3mo	$224,900	$136	63
11309 Klein Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+0%)	0mo	$158,950	$97	62
15299 Oakwood Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+13%)	0mo	$215,000	$117	62
11376 Camden Court Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,497 (-9%)	2mo	$219,990	$147	59
12317 Charwood Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,724 (+5%)	1mo	$259,900	$151	57
11377 Klein Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,450 (-12%)	1mo	$170,000	$117	50
106 Graham St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,450 (-12%)	2mo	$130,000	$90	47
113 Fore St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	1mo	$150,000	$107	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,439
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $50,097
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	43d	2	0.32mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	21d	1	0.43mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	0.48mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	21d	1	0.48mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	0.48mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	0.48mi
15251 Parkwood Dr N Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.56mi
101 Fore St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	0.61mi
125 Clarence Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	13d	1	0.67mi
15235 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1101	$1,200	$1.09	13d	1	0.73mi
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	43d	1	1.07mi
12237 Vada Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,349	$1.00	13d	1	1.09mi
15334 Oak Creek Cv Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,149	$1.24	21d	1	1.20mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	13d	1	1.32mi
11601 Oaklane Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,525	$0.97	13d	1	1.35mi
14437 Whitney Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.43mi
10479 Cal Ln Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$950	$0.79	21d	1	1.43mi
14160 Maple Ct Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1279-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $157,500 Active 1279-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable income: $535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-24 Listed $157,500 MLSU

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $106 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.