433 Squirrel St · Fayetteville, NC 28303

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1950 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors and first time buyers! In 2019, the wiring, ceiling and paint were updated. The property includes a living room with hardwood flooring and vinyl flooring. The kitchen offers a double sink, dishwasher (2019), electric stove (2025), microwave (2025), and refrigerator. Washer and dryer are located in a separate washroom. Two bedrooms with ceiling fans. Bathroom includes a tub/shower combo. The mini-split is used to heat/cool the house. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Vinyl flooring
• Double sink

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• VINYL FLOORING
• DOUBLE SINK
• DISHWASHER
• ELECTRIC STOVE
• MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Located in the Oakland subdivision; Zoned SF6 (Single Family Res 6)
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials
• Exterior features: Crawl space basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other); Window unit(s) for cooling; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R Max Abbott Middle (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 759 students, 99% FRL); Terry Sanford High (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #306 of 535 statewide, top 57%, 1,224 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $55k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.55%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,000
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Grooms St	0.44mi	2/1.0	744 (+3%)	11mo	$119,000	$160	66
436 Squirrel St	0.03mi	2/1.0	647 (-11%)	21mo	$80,000	$124	63
113 Grooms St	0.44mi	2/1.0	750 (+3%)	20mo	$137,000	$183	57
5218 Gavins St	0.48mi	2/2.0	760 (+5%)	11mo	$120,000	$158	56
433 Ferrell Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	22mo	$119,800	$153	56
5003 Higgins St	0.68mi	2/1.0	768 (+6%)	9mo	$136,000	$177	51
213 Gertrude St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	806 (+11%)	17mo	$142,800	$177	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $21,829
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $58,718
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28303

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $498	+0% $482	+5% $466	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $437	+0% $482	+5% $526	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $496	base $482	+0.5pp $468	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4981 Galveston Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	0.12mi
622 Dashland Dr Unit A Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	700	$835	$1.19	14d	1	0.29mi
622 Dashland Dr Unit B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	750	$940	$1.25	14d	1	0.29mi
211 Gertrude St Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	24d	1	0.29mi
209 Gertrude St Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	24d	1	0.30mi
1000 Antietam Crk Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,567	$1.48	24d	14	0.49mi
215 Andy St Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$850	$1.42	24d	1	0.57mi
5112 Cannon St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$949	$1.27	14d	1	0.67mi
1130 Annondale Way Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1180	$1,942	$1.65	14d	6	0.75mi
838 Anita Rd Apt 2 Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	500	$750	$1.50	22d	1	1.15mi
117 N Helen St Unit 117 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	24d	1	1.18mi
5444 Wichita Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	714	$925	$1.30	14d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   status Active
3. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-14
   listed $55,000 Active
5. 2019-12-02
   soldstatus $23,000
6. 2009-11-05
   soldstatus $30,000
7. 2009-10-30
   soldstatus $49,500
8. 2009-03-10
   soldstatus $15,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $4,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,965
• Household income: $58,223
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1370.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 37% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.14%
• Current HPI: 226.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+252.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $55,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2009-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $15,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +38.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.