2716 Timberside Dr · Francisville, KY 41048

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · Townhouse · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $146/sqft · at area comps Est $318k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Second Level Condo. Enjoy easy second level condo living in the Nolita. Upon entering this home from your private staircase, discover a well-designed layout with an open dining area, kitchen with serving island and walk-in pantry, and spacious family room. A cozy pocket office is tucked away off the dining area ? perfect for work from home days. A nice covered outdoor living area is accessed just off the family room providing a peaceful place to relax. You will love the secluded primary suite and bath which includes a walk-in shower and an ample walk-in closet. A convenient laundry room is located just off the primary suite.

Key facts

• Serving island
• Open dining area
• Private staircase

Tags

• PRIVATE STAIRCASE
• OPEN DINING AREA
• SERVING ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• COZY POCKET OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Francisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#170 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Pointe Elementary School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C+, #43 of 676 statewide, top 6%, 424 students, 28% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $249,587 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,907
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -2.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2670 Timberside Dr	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,108 (-1%)	2mo	$324,005	$154	89
2622 Timberside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,101 (-1%)	14mo	$302,741	$144	76
2674 Timberside Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-14%)	0mo	$287,400	$158	75
2123 Ridgeline Dr	0.19mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,129 (0%)	11mo	$408,478	$192	73
2105 Ridgeline Dr	0.21mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,129 (0%)	12mo	$419,900	$197	71
1644 Creekwood Ct	0.07mi	3/3.0	2,394 (+12%)	4mo	$425,000	$178	69
2652 Timberside Dr	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-12%)	9mo	$324,900	$174	64
2644 Timberside Dr	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,882 (-12%)	13mo	$329,900	$175	62
2636 Timberside Dr	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-12%)	12mo	$328,202	$176	62
2141 Ridgeline Dr	0.17mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,395 (+12%)	3mo	$425,823	$178	60
2614 Timberside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-12%)	13mo	$300,603	$161	59
2127 Ridgeline Dr	0.18mi	3/3.0	2,395 (+12%)	11mo	$429,900	$179	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-61,001
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-66,901
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,700 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 41048

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $285,313

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-63	+0% $-170	+5% $-277	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-268	+0% $-170	+5% $-71	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-91	base $-170	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2638 Hazelnut Ct Hebron, KY	4.0	3.0	2856	$3,000	$1.05	72d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $309,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 2716 Timberside Dr, Hebron, KY 41048

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Nolita planLiving area approximately 2129

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $309,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $309,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $309,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $309,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $309,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $309,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $309,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $309,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $309,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $309,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $309,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $309,900 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 72 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $309,900 Active 70 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $309,900 Active 69 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $309,900 Active 68 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $309,900 Active 66 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $309,900 Active 65 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $309,900 Active 64 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 62 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $309,900 Active 61 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $309,900 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 58 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 57 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 56 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 55 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,900 Active 54 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,900 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,900 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $309,900 Active 49 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $309,900 Active 47 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 43 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,900 Active 42 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,900 Active 41 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,900 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $309,900 Active 38 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $319,900 Active 34 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,900 Active 33 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 32 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $319,900 Active 29 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,900 Active 28 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,900 Active 27 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$7,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a good curb appeal. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary North Pointe Elementary School C+ KY #43/676 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle Conner Middle School B- KY #6/217 Nat'l #2,362/14,009 High Conner High School D KY #15/254 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boone County
• NCES district ID: 2100510
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $68,096
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3550
• State rank: #12 of 165 in KY

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Francisville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #8634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Francisville, KY
• County: Boone County · 144,066 people
• City population: 16,262
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 16,211
• Household income: $137,398
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,066 people
• By 2030: 152,005 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 166,776 · +15.8%
• By 2050: 178,974 · +24.2%
• By 2075: 204,515 · +42.0%
• By 2100: 215,306 · +49.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.70%
• Current HPI: 189.8568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $309,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family propertyActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 2716 Timberside Dr, Hebron, KY 41048

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Nolita planLiving area approximately 2129