1911 Prickly Pear Dr · Bastrop, TX 78602

$295,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2019 6,098 sqft lot $174/sqft · 15% below area Est $347k · 15% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home featuring a thoughtfully designed floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The open-Concept layout creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home feel spacious and inviting. The kitchen is the heart of the home, complete with a center island with breakfast bar, ideal for casual meals, gatherings or morning coffee. The primary suite offers a private retreat with its own en-suite bathroom, providing comfort and convenience. Located in a great neighborhood in the heart of downtown Bastrop, you'll enjoy easy access to local shops, dining and everything this vibrant community has to offer. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautiful home in a prime location.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Great neighborhood
• Easy access

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bastrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#947 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1068 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,888
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -14.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1928 Dragonfly Loop	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,724 (+2%)	5mo	$289,000	$168	89
505 Magnolia St	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,695 (-0%)	10mo	$264,990	$156	72
412 Persimmon St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-12%)	4mo	$335,900	$224	64
410 Juniper St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-7%)	16mo	$177,000	$112	61
402 Laurel St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-13%)	8mo	$299,000	$202	61
1710 Garfield St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-7%)	15mo	$395,000	$250	58
604 Wilhelm St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-13%)	3mo	$398,000	$270	54
2415 Wilson St	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,840 (+8%)	1mo	$338,000	$184	54
1804 Hill St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,527 (-10%)	7mo	$349,000	$229	45
705 Laurel St N	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-13%)	17mo	$265,000	$180	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,954
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-65,854
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78602

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1068
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,084/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,787

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1921 Dragonfly Loop Unit NA Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$3,395	$2.28	44d	1	0.09mi
1921 Dragonfly Loop Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$3,395	$2.28	24d	1	0.09mi
805 Laurel St Bastrop, TX	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,550	$1.40	24d	1	0.53mi
2305 Main St Bastrop, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	3d	1	0.57mi
223 Nicole Way Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,800	$1.37	4d	1	0.88mi
1510 Elm St Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,650	$1.36	44d	1	1.07mi
114 Clear Water Pass Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,200	$1.28	15d	1	1.38mi
117 Calm Water Loop Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	44d	1	1.39mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	24d	1	1.49mi
131 Trailstone Dr Bastrop, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    listed $295,000 Active 772-char remark

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home featuring a thoughtfully designed floor plan perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The open-Concept layout creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home feel spacious and inviting. The kitchen is the heart of the home, complete with a center island with breakfast bar, ideal for casual meals, gatherings or morning coffee. The primary suite offers a private retreat with its own en-suite bathroom, providing comfort and convenience. Located in a great neighborhood in the heart of downtown Bastrop, you'll enjoy easy access to local shops, dining and everything this vibrant community has to offer. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautiful home in a prime location.

15. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus Sold 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

16. 2020-05-01
    status Pending - Over 4 Months 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

17. 2019-12-30
    status Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

18. 2019-12-09
    status Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

19. 2019-12-06
    status Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

20. 2019-11-08
    price $226,921 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

21. 2019-11-01
    price $226,856 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

22. 2019-10-09
    price $226,836 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

23. 2019-09-24
    listed $226,801 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Single-story home w kitchen featuring Woodmont® shaker panel maple cabinetry in Pebble. Master suite has large walk-in closet & dual vanity with Silestone® countertops. Finishing touches include 9-foot ceilings throughout, plush Shaw® carpeting in bedrooms, family room & dining room, tile flooring in the entry & bathrooms & Armstrong® premium vinyl flooring in kitchen & laundry room, 2" faux wood blinds, Carrier® CôR Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat & covered back patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,084 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,084 · $507/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$6,084
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,815
• − Management: −$2,815
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $2,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bastrop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #947
• US rank: #16846

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bastrop, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 38,190
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,190
• Household income: $89,968
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.68%
• Current HPI: 247.1145
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $295,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-05-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-12-30 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-12-09 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2019-12-06 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-11-08 Price Changed $226,921 Unlock MLS
• 2019-11-01 Price Changed $226,856 Unlock MLS
• 2019-10-09 Price Changed $226,836 Unlock MLS
• 2019-09-24 Listed $226,801 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+53.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,084 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.