3409 Jarvis Ave · Warren, MI 48091

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 7,405 sqft lot $190/sqft · 62% above area Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 3-bedroom ranch featuring a detached 2-car garage in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities. Freshly painted throughout with new flooring and modern light fixtures, this move-in-ready home offers a bright, open layout ideal for comfortable living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms provide ample closet space, while the large backyard deck is perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Don't miss this well-maintained home with stylish updates throughout! Open House: Saturday & Sunday from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Large backyard deck
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD DECK
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.17 acres (60 x 120)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling (no central air)
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Fitzgerald Public Schools (urban): math 8% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #503 of 540 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,777 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,922
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 9.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3135 Jarvis Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,052 (0%)	2mo	$163,000	$155	90
3471 Los Angeles Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	988 (-6%)	2mo	$140,000	$142	68
2167 Woodruff Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+3%)	2mo	$146,000	$135	67
2184 Garrick Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	1mo	$95,100	$99	63
22694 Le Fever Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	2mo	$154,000	$154	62
20811 Sunset Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+4%)	3mo	$122,000	$112	58
3408 Stolzenfeld Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	988 (-6%)	4mo	$140,000	$142	56
22011 Masch Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	5mo	$163,000	$163	54
2007 Pearl Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	937 (-11%)	2mo	$131,500	$140	53
3342 Bart St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	942 (-10%)	1mo	$95,000	$101	49
22369 Cunningham Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	900 (-14%)	1mo	$150,000	$167	47
22546 Ira Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+14%)	0mo	$168,000	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,899
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,319
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48091

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,751/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $179,067

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-61	+0% $-118	+5% $-175	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-176	+0% $-118	+5% $-60	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-67	base $-118	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3951 Los Angeles Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,500	$1.19	25d	1	0.50mi
21155 Warner Ave Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	756	$1,029	$1.36	25d	1	0.51mi
3840 Bart Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,350	$1.27	25d	1	0.62mi
2709 Capitol Ave Warren, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,649	$1.56	44d	1	0.63mi
21516 Dequindre Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	837	$1,375	$1.64	22d	1	0.64mi
1731 E Pearl Ave Hazel Park, MI	3.0	1.0	844	$1,500	$1.78	21d	1	0.77mi
2034 John B Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	920	$1,261	$1.37	44d	1	0.78mi
22580 Masch Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	988	$1,450	$1.47	25d	1	0.80mi
23378 Cunningham Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,500	$1.32	3d	1	0.85mi
20255 Harned St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,374	$1.37	17d	1	0.86mi
1621 E Evelyn Ave Hazel Park, MI	2.0	1.0	749	$1,295	$1.73	18d	1	0.86mi
23077 Davey Ave Hazel Park, MI	3.0	1.0	933	$1,895	$2.03	25d	1	0.89mi
20794 Audrey Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	954	$1,350	$1.42	44d	1	1.05mi
1326 E Evelyn Ave Unit 1032332P Hazel Park, MI	3.0	2.0	1097	$6,448	$5.88	2d	1	1.05mi
20000 Norwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,200	$1.04	25d	1	1.06mi
19995 Goddard St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,400	$1.08	22d	1	1.11mi
1770 E Woodward Heights Blvd Unit E3 Hazel Park, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	25d	1	1.12mi
1770 E Woodward Heights Blvd Hazel Park, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,525	$1.79	13d	1	1.12mi
1770 E Woodward Heights Blvd Hazel Park, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,400	$1.96	5d	1	1.12mi
1211 E Bernhard Ave Hazel Park, MI	2.0	1.0	721	$1,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.15mi
19930 Binder St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	1.15mi
22622 Panama Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.5	920	$1,395	$1.52	11d	1	1.17mi
21410 Panama St Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	1.18mi
1301 E Muir Ave Hazel Park, MI	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,600	$1.29	22d	1	1.19mi
19694 Gallagher St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	15d	1	1.22mi
21465 Syracuse Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	990	$1,375	$1.39	44d	1	1.25mi
1019 E Hayes Ave Unit 1032331P Hazel Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1033	$5,301	$5.13	2d	1	1.27mi
21456 Syracuse Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,595	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
21456 Syracuse Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,595	$1.38	2d	1	1.28mi
19450 Norwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	1.34mi
19360 Revere St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	25d	1	1.41mi
20263 Caldwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	909	$1,350	$1.49	17d	1	1.43mi
23115 Tawas Ave Hazel Park, MI	2.0	1.0	706	$1,375	$1.95	25d	1	1.45mi
20058 Bloom St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	17d	1	1.45mi
4652 E 10 Mile Rd Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.48mi
23345 Tawas Ave Hazel Park, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	11d	1	1.48mi
1045 E Woodward Heights Blvd Hazel Park, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,209	$1.69	25d	3	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $199,900 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-04-11
   listed $224,700 Active 851-char remark
8. 2026-04-10
   historical
9. 2026-04-10
   listed $224,700 Active
10. 2026-03-09
    listed $225,000 Active
11. 2026-03-09
    listed $225,000 Active
12. 2026-03-03
    historical
13. 2025-12-10
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,751 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,751
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fitzgerald Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614460
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $34,828
• Composite: 12.67/100
• National rank: #9608
• State rank: #503 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,696
• Household income: $54,230
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1296.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 25% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.66%
• Current HPI: 177.9273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $224,700 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $224,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $225,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-03 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,751 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.