3147 E Vallejo Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$524,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,171 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 338 Days on market

Built 2004 7,800 sqft lot $242/sqft · at area comps Est $518k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

Key facts

• Custom flooring
• Spacious backyard
• Open living space

Tags

• SKYLIGHTS
• CUSTOM FLOORING
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $524k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-886 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $285k; list at $524k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,918 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.24%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $517,750
• List price: $524,500
• Delta: 1.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7020 S Banning St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,171 (0%)	3mo	$620,000	$286	84
2970 E Andre Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,171 (0%)	1mo	$470,000	$216	80
3006 E Muirfield St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,081 (-4%)	1mo	$500,000	$240	73
3319 E Fandango Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	2,290 (+6%)	3mo	$589,000	$257	70
2975 E Augusta Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-2%)	4mo	$550,000	$258	65
3295 E Castanets Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (-5%)	4mo	$560,000	$271	59
3274 E Isaiah Ct	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+11%)	1mo	$710,000	$295	58
3412 E Ravenswood Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+11%)	2mo	$660,000	$274	57
7169 S Dodane Ct	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+11%)	1mo	$520,000	$216	56
7137 S Fawn Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,039 (-6%)	4mo	$590,000	$289	53
2882 E Citadel Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,368 (+9%)	2mo	$649,000	$274	48
3700 E Vallejo Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (+11%)	2mo	$600,000	$249	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $175,563
• Equity at exit: $411,496

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $560,210
• Equity at exit: $829,556

Cash invested: $146,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,751
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,851/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $-886

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,061

Max offer price $367,921

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,125
• Closing costs: $15,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3147 E Vallejo Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,350	$1.08	16d	1	0.03mi
3068 E Ravenswood Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,550	$1.40	12d	1	0.18mi
6770 S Tucana Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2070	$4,500	$2.17	24d	1	0.34mi
3067 E Palmdale Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,300	$1.37	14d	1	0.49mi
3560 E Merlot St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1777	$4,750	$2.67	43d	1	0.55mi
2971 E Ridgewood Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,380	$1.42	43d	1	0.60mi
2751 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	2658	$2,799	$1.05	1d	1	0.69mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,395	$1.36	2d	1	0.72mi
2723 E Mews Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,495	$1.42	18d	1	0.72mi
6943 S View Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,445	$0.95	4d	1	0.84mi
3570 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2536	$3,200	$1.26	2d	1	0.87mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2873	$2,995	$1.04	23d	1	0.88mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2873	$2,995	$1.04	21d	1	0.88mi
3440 E Flower St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2943	$2,800	$0.95	24d	1	0.89mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	24d	1	0.93mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	14d	1	0.99mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	24d	1	1.07mi
2304 E Kelly Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,400	$1.34	12d	1	1.13mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	4d	1	1.15mi
2927 E Mead Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1651	$2,250	$1.36	18d	1	1.20mi
2303 E Citadel Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2265	$2,750	$1.21	24d	1	1.22mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	43d	1	1.25mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	43d	1	1.27mi
3486 E Anika Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1749	$2,600	$1.49	43d	1	1.27mi
4155 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2064	$2,600	$1.26	4d	1	1.28mi
4176 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2740	$6,500	$2.37	3d	1	1.31mi
4176 E Clubview Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	2740	$5,200	$1.90	4d	1	1.31mi
6686 S St Andrews Way Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.5	1764	$5,100	$2.89	43d	1	1.32mi
6659 S Cartier Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	17d	1	1.47mi
2220 E Flintlock Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2643	$2,950	$1.12	23d	1	1.47mi
6851 S Birdie Way Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2591	$2,995	$1.16	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $524,500 Active 338 DOM
2. 2025-12-30
   price $524,500 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

3. 2025-12-30
   price $524,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

4. 2025-10-28
   price $529,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

5. 2025-08-11
   price $534,900 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

6. 2025-06-27
   listed $535,000 Active 240-char remark

   Show marketing remark (240 chars)

   Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home with a den in Gilbert's desirable Country Shadows! Features skylights, custom flooring, open living space, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. Enjoy comfort, style, and a great community all in one!

7. 2017-06-08
   soldstatus $285,000 Closed 829-char remark

   Show marketing remark (829 chars)

   Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

8. 2017-06-08
   soldstatus $285,000

   Show marketing remark (829 chars)

   Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

9. 2017-06-07
   status Pending 829-char remark

   Show marketing remark (829 chars)

   Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

10. 2017-05-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

11. 2017-04-28
    status Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

12. 2017-04-26
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

13. 2017-04-06
    price $280,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

14. 2017-03-14
    status Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

15. 2017-03-08
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

16. 2017-03-06
    listed $282,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Prior Model Home! Incredible Single Story home located in the highly desirable Country Shadows Community. This perfectly split 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms & a Den floor plan includes a spacious elegant formal living & dining room. The family room with a build-in surround system is open to the kitchen & breakfast nook. The spacious kitchen has maple cabinets, breakfast bar, pantry, all appliances, sky light, tile & many more upgrades. Also, the master bedroom has a separate exit to the backyard & extended patio. The Master Bathroom includes natural light, separate shower & tub, large walk-in closet, dual sink & much more. The laundry center has a connection for a gas or electric dyer. The backyard has many mature trees, sitting area & is very open. A must see! Close to many amenities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,851 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,462 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,611/yr (+$134/mo · 87.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,380
• − Property taxes: −$1,851
• − Insurance: −$2,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,822
• − Management: −$2,822
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$15,258
• Taxable loss: −$20,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+86.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $524,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $524,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $529,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $534,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $535,000 ARMLS
• 2017-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-08 Sold (MLS) $285,000 ARMLS
• 2017-06-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2017-05-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-04-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-04-26 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-04-06 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-03-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-03-06 Listed $282,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,851 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.