1878 Fairground Rd · Unadilla Forks, NY 13485

$89,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1875 0.36 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Incredible investment opportunity! This home needs some love but has great bones and tons of potential! The home has had some selective updates, including a new circulator pump, windows, kitchen countertops and cabinets, and more. Centrally located close to so many adventures, such as the Horse Trails of Brookfield, Bouckville Antiques, Cherry Ridge Rustic Camping, State Parks, and public fishing access, to name a few! An easy drive to Cooperstown, Utica, and Herkimer makes enjoying things like Otsego Lake, the Baseball Hall of Fame, shopping, restaurants, Utica Commons, Stanley Theatre, Herkimer Diamond Mines, and much more! Whether looking for a fantastic place to call home or a solid

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1875

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brookfield Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #605 of 755 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.17%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $74,227
• Equity at exit: $76,364

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.81×
• Total profit: $194,734
• Equity at exit: $160,786

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13485

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $491	+0% $460	+5% $430	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $407	+0% $460	+5% $514	+10% $568
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $483	base $460	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-09-13
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-09
   price $89,000
3. 2024-08-23
   listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $4,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $4,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605670
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,610
• Composite: 38.48/100
• National rank: #8474
• State rank: #605 of 755 in NY

Livability — Unadilla Forks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,715

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.41%
• Current HPI: 291.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $89,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-08-23 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.