The Brambling Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$258,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,993 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Brambling has a rear corner covered patio directly accessible from the light-filled family room. A large eat-in island kitchen overlooks the family room for easy entertaining. On the second floor, you can change a spacious loft to a fourth bedroom, which separates the private owner's suite from two secondary bedrooms. The owner's suite includes a massive walk-in closet and private bath and has easy access to the second-floor laundry room.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Spacious loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• REAR CORNER COVERED PATIO
• EAT-IN ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $258,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Heat provided by a heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Brambling)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,993
• Exterior features: Addressed on Keenan Cut Off Rd, Montgomery, TX 77316

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Active listing — plan name: The Brambling

🏗️ New construction. The $258,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,132.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,708 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,132
• List price: $258,990
• Delta: -9.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18768 Dalton Willis Dr Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,035 (+2%)	10mo	$598,000	$294	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,629
• Equity at exit: $42,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-108,826
• Equity at exit: $24,739

Cash invested: $80,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,501
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,292/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $240,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-214	+0% $-313	+5% $-412	+10% $-511
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-396	+0% $-313	+5% $-230	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-240	base $-313	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,533
• Closing costs: $8,584
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,990 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,990 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,990 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,990 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,990 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,990 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,990 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,990 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,990 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,990 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,990 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,990 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,990 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,990 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,990 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $258,990 Active 446-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,028
• − Property taxes: −$4,292
• − Insurance: −$1,431
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$8,324
• Taxable loss: −$8,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained appearance. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B