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14040 Lincoln Ave Duplex
B- Composite 68.2
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +29.5/30.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • 1% rule +9.4/10.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Rent growth +4.9/5.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +0.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$269,900

14040 Lincoln Ave · Dolton, IL 60419
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 348 Days on market
Built 1888 0.28 ac lot

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Rehab this former vintage beauty. Burst pipes wreaked havoc on this home, it will need a lot of work. Two units including a main level connected with full basement with two bedrooms + another two bedroom unit on top level. Huge yard with 3 car garage. Great location across from the library. Working with experienced SS attorney.

Key facts

  • Fully renovated
  • Modern layouts
  • New carpet

Tags

FULLY RENOVATEDMOVE IN READYMODERN LAYOUTSFRESH FINISHESNEW FLOORINGNEW CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

  • Financial info: Special Service Area: No

Exterior

  • Parking: Detached garage with 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces)
  • Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan / public water; Public sewer
  • Home design: Two-to-four unit property (2 units); Fee simple ownership; Originally built over 100 years ago; Rehab in 2025; Built before 1978
  • Construction: Vinyl siding; Rehabilitated in 2025
  • Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 248; Approximately 0.25–0.49 acre lot; School bus service; Interstate access

Interior

  • Kitchen: Each unit includes stove, refrigerator, and microwave
  • Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Unit 1 (1st floor): 2 bedrooms; Unit 2 (2nd floor): 2 bedrooms
  • Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total; Unit 1: 1 full bathroom; Unit 2: 1 full bathroom
  • Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
  • Interior features: 11 total rooms; Full unfinished walk-out basement
  • Laundry & utility: Tenants pay electric, gas, and heat

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $270k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $481/mo.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
  • Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime D-.
  • Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 342 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln Junior High School (150 students, 0% FRL); Thornridge High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #589 of 693 statewide, top 86%, 1,057 students, 0% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $3,894/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 919% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
  • Current owner paid $40k; list at $270k implies a 575% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Recommended offer $237,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
  3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
  4. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.44%
Cap rate
10.57%
Cash-on-cash
15.29%
DSCR
1.68
GRM
5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
12.0%
Equity multiple
1.51×
Total profit
$38,377
Equity at exit
$40,243
10-year hold
IRR
24.9%
Equity multiple
3.74×
Total profit
$206,901
Equity at exit
$23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
State Illinois
43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

ZIP-level market 60419

Home prices YoY
-25.7%
Rents YoY
9.7%
Active inventory
129
Price-to-rent
11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$3,894 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,415
Tax from tax record
$586 /mo · $7,027/yr
Insurance
$112
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$818
Net cashflow
$963

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,675
Max offer price $269,900
Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $1,116 -5% $1,039 +0% $963 +5% $886 +10% $810
Rent -10% $655 -5% $809 +0% $963 +5% $1,117 +10% $1,270
Rate -1.0pp $1,099 -0.5pp $1,031 base $963 +0.5pp $893 +1.0pp $822

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

UnitsBedsBathsEst. rent
Total (2 units) $3,894

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$67,475
Closing costs
$8,097
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
14124 Manor Ave Dolton, IL 3.0 2.0 1440 $2,390 $1.66 26d 1 0.33mi
19 E 140th Ct Riverdale, IL 3.0 2.0 2076 $2,231 $1.07 9d 1 0.60mi
13903 S State St Riverdale, IL 4.0 1.5 2300 $2,650 $1.15 26d 1 0.68mi
13708 S Wentworth Ave Riverdale, IL 3.0 1.5 1500 $2,200 $1.47 24d 1 1.02mi
14505 Minerva Ave Dolton, IL 4.0 2.0 2100 $2,500 $1.19 26d 1 1.13mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL 3.0 1.5 1418 $2,500 $1.76 26d 1 1.21mi

Listing history 32 events

  1. 2026-06-21
    days on market $269,900 Active 348 DOM
  2. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,900 Active 345 DOM
  3. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,900 Active 344 DOM
  4. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,900 Active 343 DOM
  5. 2026-06-15
    days on market $269,900 Active 342 DOM
  6. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 340 DOM
  7. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 339 DOM
  8. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,900 Active 336 DOM
  9. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 335 DOM
  10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 334 DOM
  11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 331 DOM
  12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 330 DOM
  13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 329 DOM
  14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 328 DOM
  15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 327 DOM
  16. 2026-05-08
    status Active
  17. 2026-04-24
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
  18. 2026-03-20
    price $269,900
  19. 2025-08-10
    price $290,000
  20. 2025-07-08
    listed $300,000 Active
  21. 2023-06-29
    soldstatus $40,000
  22. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed 329-char remark
    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Rehab this former vintage beauty. Burst pipes wreaked havoc on this home, it will need a lot of work. Two units including a main level connected with full basement with two bedrooms + another two bedroom unit on top level. Huge yard with 3 car garage. Great location across from the library. Working with experienced SS attorney.

  23. 2023-04-09
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show 329-char remark
    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Rehab this former vintage beauty. Burst pipes wreaked havoc on this home, it will need a lot of work. Two units including a main level connected with full basement with two bedrooms + another two bedroom unit on top level. Huge yard with 3 car garage. Great location across from the library. Working with experienced SS attorney.

  24. 2023-04-04
    price $40,000 329-char remark
    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Rehab this former vintage beauty. Burst pipes wreaked havoc on this home, it will need a lot of work. Two units including a main level connected with full basement with two bedrooms + another two bedroom unit on top level. Huge yard with 3 car garage. Great location across from the library. Working with experienced SS attorney.

  25. 2023-03-28
    listed $50,000 Active 329-char remark
    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    Rehab this former vintage beauty. Burst pipes wreaked havoc on this home, it will need a lot of work. Two units including a main level connected with full basement with two bedrooms + another two bedroom unit on top level. Huge yard with 3 car garage. Great location across from the library. Working with experienced SS attorney.

  26. 2011-10-21
    historical
  27. 2011-10-11
    listed New
  28. 2011-10-11
    historical
  29. 2011-08-01
    price Price Change
  30. 2011-07-13
    price Price Change
  31. 2011-05-17
    price Price Change
  32. 2011-03-03
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

Current annual tax
$7,027 · $586/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$7,027 · $586/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$46,728
− Mortgage interest
−$15,119
− Property taxes
−$7,027
− Insurance
−$1,350
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,738
− Management
−$3,738
− Depreciation
−$7,852
Taxable income
$7,904
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,897
After-tax cash flow
$9,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Thornton Twp Hsd 205
NCES district ID
1738970
Math proficiency
7% ▬ 0.00%
Reading proficiency
8% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$43,392
Composite
6.92/100
National rank
#9976
State rank
#594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Dolton

Score
74/100
State rank
#263
US rank
#4883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Dolton, IL
County
Cook County · 4,486,803 people
City population
20,825
Metro
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Population (ZIP)
20,825
Household income
$57,887
Rent vs Own
27.4% rent · 72.6% own
Severe rent burden
919.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,347,519 people
By 2030
5,357,703 · +0.2%
By 2040
5,324,924 · -0.4%
By 2050
5,230,762 · -2.2%
By 2075
4,785,735 · -10.5%
By 2100
4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly Black (91%)
Race & ethnicity
Black 91% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
Foreign-born
3% · Canada
Languages at home
95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

2024 margin
Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing
-11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
All cycles
2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -66.88%
Current HPI
193.2346
Rent YoY
▲ 9.65%
Metro
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
State GDP YoY
▲ 1.59%
F500 in state
60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

+439.8% since first listed
17 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-08 Relisted MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-24 Contingent MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-20 Price Changed $269,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-08-10 Price Changed $290,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-07-08 Listed $300,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
  • 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-04-09 Contingent MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-04-04 Price Changed $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-03-28 Listed $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-10-21 Listing Removed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-10-11 Listed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-10-11 Listing Removed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-08-01 Price Changed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-07-13 Price Changed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-05-17 Price Changed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2011-03-03 Listed MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,027 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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