5705 SW Littlerock Rd #16 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 200 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $95k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A must see fully remodel home in the desirable Allimore estates park. This home offers 3 bedrooms and two full baths. Updated bathrooms and kitchen with new appliances. New flooring and fresh paint throughout the entire home. Located close to shopping centers and highway, Potential owner financing. Schedule your showing now before its gone!!!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING CENTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Michael T Simmons Elementary (479 students, 40% FRL); Tumwater Middle School (616 students, 32% FRL); A G West Black Hills High School (833 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.22%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,480
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
930 Trosper Rd SW #3	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (+10%)	1mo	$65,000	$68	70
5705 Littlerock Rd SW #20	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	882 (+2%)	22mo	$40,000	$45	70
1841 Trosper Rd SW #30	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+11%)	9mo	$110,000	$115	54
1841 Trosper Rd SW #24	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-12%)	8mo	$84,500	$110	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $51,108
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $125,815
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $911/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,069

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,123	-5% $1,096	+0% $1,069	+5% $1,042	+10% $1,015
Rent	-10% $901	-5% $985	+0% $1,069	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,237
Rate	-1.0pp $1,117	-0.5pp $1,093	base $1,069	+0.5pp $1,044	+1.0pp $1,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,735	$2.60	45d	3	0.36mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,574	$2.33	15d	4	0.36mi
301 T St SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	589	$1,635	$2.78	15d	5	0.44mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	15d	4	0.48mi
4822 Rural Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,995	$1.95	22d	1	0.58mi
1517 Bishop Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	669	$1,930	$2.88	15d	1	0.62mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	15d	6	0.67mi
214 65th Way SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	22d	1	0.67mi
151 Cherry Ln SE Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.0	874	$2,195	$2.51	22d	1	0.78mi
220 Israel Rd SW Unit G8 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,975	$2.04	45d	1	0.86mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt A4 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	15d	1	0.90mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt B6 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	45d	1	0.90mi
6805 Littlerock Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	45d	1	0.94mi
801 Israel Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	965	$1,860	$1.93	15d	2	0.95mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,500	$2.72	15d	35	1.30mi
1992 Ridgeview Loop SW Unit 204 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,700	$2.11	22d	1	1.40mi
520 Primrose Ln SE Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1050	$2,200	$2.10	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   price $95,000
3. 2026-01-07
   status Active
4. 2025-12-26
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-08
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$911
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $11,996
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,879
• After-tax cash flow: $9,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Listed $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $911 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.