3483 Hurst Rd · Badger, AK 99705

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1976 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Over 1300 Sqft Ranch Home w/ over 700 Sqft garage on an acre in North Pole. Plumbing does not hold pressure. LL has limited info. All info taken from taxes, title & visual observation. Buyer to verify all info please. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 06/26/2026.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Residential, detached property; Built in 1976
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Other foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gravel road access; Lot of about 1.01 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Electric service/features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $108,251 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.30%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2330 Planters Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-2%)	1mo	$364,900	$274	79
3545 Pedal Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	12mo	$355,000	$261	76
2361 Timberpark Loop	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+1%)	10mo	$366,000	$267	76
2390 Edsson Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+4%)	10mo	$365,000	$259	68
2375 Wild Flower Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-7%)	10mo	$80,000	$63	66
3591 Route 66	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,392 (+2%)	4mo	$230,000	$165	62
2389 Timberpark Loop	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+11%)	9mo	$390,000	$258	58
2186 Onyx Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-12%)	6mo	$588,000	$488	45
2202 W Independence Cir	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-14%)	14mo	$259,000	$220	44
3175 Trestrail Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+9%)	12mo	$430,000	$291	37
2120 Tops St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	9mo	$310,000	$258	35
3415 Our St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-12%)	13mo	$300,000	$251	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $61,275
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $170,468
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,188/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,193	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,130	+10% $1,099
Rent	-10% $973	-5% $1,067	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,256	+10% $1,350
Rate	-1.0pp $1,217	-0.5pp $1,190	base $1,162	+0.5pp $1,133	+1.0pp $1,104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2555 Mission Rd North Pole, AK	2.0–3.0	1.0	1175	$1,750	$1.49	45d	2	1.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $109,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,188 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,188
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $12,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,104
• After-tax cash flow: $10,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $109,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,188 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.