6 Smugglers Path · Northville, NY 11947

$795,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,762 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1983 1.07 ac lot Est $1577k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Cesspool / septic tank
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Not waterfront; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Finished basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space (finished full basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $795k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26k ($313k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($40k rent vs $795k).
• Cap rate 45.7% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $223k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 61% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $458k; list at $795k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $795,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 140.73%
• DSCR: 7.26
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,577,102
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 Pier Ave	0.46mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+1%)	7mo	$1,600,000	$571	59
4 Simeon Rd	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,390 (-14%)	4mo	$940,000	$393	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $1,759,074
• Equity at exit: $357,466

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.67×
• Total profit: $3,932,875
• Equity at exit: $550,898

Cash invested: $222,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11947

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $40,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$994 /mo · $11,925/yr
• Insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,400
• Net cashflow: $26,106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,955

Max offer price $795,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,750
• Closing costs: $23,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Smugglers Path Riverhead, NY	3.0	4.0	3655	$40,000	$10.94	43d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   historical $795,000
3. 2016-08-15
   soldstatus $457,500 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All.

4. 2016-08-15
   soldstatus $457,500 Closed 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All.

5. 2016-06-07
   status Under Contract 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All.

6. 2016-04-07
   listed $495,000 New 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

7. 2016-04-07
   listed $495,000 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Elegance And Ease - Jamesport. Located Feet From Iron Pier Beach This Turn-Key Home Is On Over An Acre W/ Views Of Li Sound. Perfectly Suited For Weekend Getaway Or Year Round Living W/ 3 Br, 2 Ba, Gr W/ Fpl, Sr, Walk-Out Bsmt & Gar. Whether You Commune W/ Nature From Your Sun Room, Spend The Day At Beach Or Launch Boat From Iron Pier Park. This Location Has It All., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:N

8. 2016-02-15
   historical
9. 2015-07-23
   listed $515,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $480,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,532
• − Property taxes: −$11,925
• − Insurance: −$3,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$38,400
• − Management: −$38,400
• − Depreciation: −$23,127
• Taxable income: $319,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$76,714
• After-tax cash flow: $236,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 248

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-15 Sold (MLS) $457,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-15 Sold (MLS) $457,500 MLSLI
• 2016-06-07 Pending — MLSLI
• 2016-04-07 Listed $495,000 MLSLI
• 2016-04-07 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-23 Listed $515,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid