3813 Pamela Dr · Jonesboro, AR 72405

$179,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1980 1.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Space is the headline at 3813 Pamela: a four-bedroom home with 3,485 square feet sitting on an acre-plus lot inside Jonesboro, paired with a detached shop. Inside, luxury vinyl plank runs throughout, and crown molding and fresh neutral paint carry from room to room. The kitchen is highly functional, featuring white cabinetry, wood-tone counters, and a window over the sink looking into the bonus room. The floor plan provides two separate living areas: one anchoring the front of the home and one sitting right outside the giant bonus room, offering space to spread out without living on top of one another. The entire home is a single level sitting slightly below ground. The primary bath feature

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Wood-tone counters
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• CROWN MOLDING
• WHITE CABINETRY
• WOOD-TONE COUNTERS
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Workshop on property; Approximately 1.1 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Living room fireplace; Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.4% in Jonesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nettleton School District (urban): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #199 of 238 in AR (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: University Heights School of Medical Arts (math 24% / reading 18%, grade F, #373 of 454 statewide, top 83%, 398 students, 100% FRL); Nettleton Junior High School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #159 of 201 statewide, top 80%, 546 students, 100% FRL); Nettleton High School (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #248 of 292 statewide, top 86%, 981 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 56% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $180k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,201 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.25%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $512,295
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Cypress Knoll Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	3,000 (-14%)	16mo	$440,000	$147	37
3416 Hudson Ct	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,973 (-15%)	16mo	$399,900	$135	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $118,235
• Equity at exit: $154,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $324,922
• Equity at exit: $325,478

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72405

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $481	+0% $430	+5% $379	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $351	+0% $430	+5% $509	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $476	base $430	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $179,900 Active
17. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 1994-12-15
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $2,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$569
• After-tax cash flow: $4,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nettleton School District
• NCES district ID: 0510440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,754
• Composite: 19.0/100
• National rank: #8846
• State rank: #199 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jonesboro

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #12692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jonesboro, AR
• County: Craighead County · 97,185 people
• City population: 91,245
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,675
• Household income: $92,440
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 443.0

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.42%
• Current HPI: 277.37
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $179,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.