1795 Osborn Ave #54 · Calverton, NY 11901

$214,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 281 Days on market

Built 2012 $295/sqft · 113% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home in excellent conditions, 2Br 1 bath, in a Family park. Centrally located. Close to shopping center, school, main st, vineyards, etc. Could be financed (by a regular lender). Montly land lease is $1075 and includes, taxes, water, trash removal, snow removal.

Key facts

• Close to school
• Centrally located
• Close to vineyards

Tags

• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING CENTER
• CLOSE TO SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO MAIN ST
• CLOSE TO VINEYARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,763
• List price: $214,999
• Delta: 113.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1795-55 Osborne Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (+10%)	4mo	$200,000	$250	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,122
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $33,909
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $214,999

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $540	+0% $466	+5% $392	+10% $317
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $368	+0% $466	+5% $564	+10% $661
Rate	-1.0pp $574	-0.5pp $521	base $466	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,999 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,999 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,999 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,999 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,999 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,999 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,999 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,999 Active 268 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,999 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,999 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,999 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,999 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,999 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,999 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $214,998 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Mobile home in excellent conditions, 2Br 1 bath, in a Family park. Centrally located. Close to shopping center, school, main st, vineyards, etc. Could be financed (by a regular lender). Montly land lease is $1075 and includes, taxes, water, trash removal, snow removal.

16. 2026-01-27
    status Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Mobile home in excellent conditions, 2Br 1 bath, in a Family park. Centrally located. Close to shopping center, school, main st, vineyards, etc. Could be financed (by a regular lender). Montly land lease is $1075 and includes, taxes, water, trash removal, snow removal.

17. 2025-12-08
    status Pending 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Mobile home in excellent conditions, 2Br 1 bath, in a Family park. Centrally located. Close to shopping center, school, main st, vineyards, etc. Could be financed (by a regular lender). Montly land lease is $1075 and includes, taxes, water, trash removal, snow removal.

18. 2025-07-25
    listed $199,990 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Mobile home in excellent conditions, 2Br 1 bath, in a Family park. Centrally located. Close to shopping center, school, main st, vineyards, etc. Could be financed (by a regular lender). Montly land lease is $1075 and includes, taxes, water, trash removal, snow removal.

19. 2014-08-12
    historical
20. 2014-04-24
    listed $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $2,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$554
• After-tax cash flow: $5,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+190.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $214,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Listed $199,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-24 Listed $74,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid