3038 SW 165th Avenue Rd · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 1.12 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 1.12 acres in Ocala's Westwood Acres North community. Offering 1,782 square feet of living space, this move-in-ready property features a spacious floor plan with new luxury vinyl flooring, fresh interior paint, updated lighting, and abundant natural light throughout. The renovated kitchen boasts modern cabinetry, ample counter space, and updated appliances, while both bathrooms have been refreshed with updated vanities and fixtures. Enjoy the peaceful country setting from the new deck, with plenty of room for outdoor activities, recreational vehicles, or future improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from Rainbow

Key facts

• 1.12 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, zoning A1; Living area about 1,782 (public records)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story
• Construction: Metal frame and other construction materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Lot approximately 1.12 acres (dimensions ~153 x 320); Road surface: Other; Faces southeast

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other; Crawlspace foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.4% in Rainbow Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 19 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.67%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,324
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2652 SW 167th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-12%)	7mo	$189,900	$121	55
17087 SW 27th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	5mo	$295,000	$182	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,017
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $56,212
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	13d	1	1.03mi
4738 SW 166th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1782	$1,600	$0.90	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $5,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

53 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $147,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Rental Removed $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-12 Listed for Rent $1,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $177,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-05 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-04 Price Changed $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-03 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Price Changed $182,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-09 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-11 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-04 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-17 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-26 Listed $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-24 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,362 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.