1616 Bicknell Ave · Louisville, KY 40215

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1947 3,920 sqft lot Est $145k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS-IS. Pre-approval or proof of funds letter & minimum 1% good faith deposit required with all offers.

Key facts

• Large garage
• Fenced yard
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LARGE GARAGE
• ROOF IS ONLY 2 YRS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $119k implies a 467% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1616 Bicknell Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	812 (0%)	0mo	$119,000	$147	100
4132 Craig Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	770 (-5%)	3mo	$55,000	$71	80
4015 Churchman Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	855 (+5%)	7mo	$180,000	$211	79
4000 Woodruff Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (-0%)	3mo	$147,000	$181	76
1508 Alma Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	700 (-14%)	3mo	$108,000	$154	58
3813 Powell Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	706 (-13%)	2mo	$145,000	$205	58
3664 Kahlert Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+5%)	2mo	$122,500	$144	57
1618 Arling Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	864 (+6%)	4mo	$155,000	$179	54
1902 Hazelwood Ct	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	762 (-6%)	7mo	$156,000	$205	51
4007 Mapleton Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	743 (-8%)	2mo	$151,000	$203	48
1423 Arling Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-7%)	2mo	$45,000	$60	47
3659 Kahlert Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	736 (-9%)	6mo	$96,500	$131	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,175
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,617
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $197	+0% $163	+5% $130	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $115	+0% $163	+5% $211	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $194	base $163	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4113 La Salle Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$1,249	$1.43	17d	1	0.08mi
4122 Craig Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	705	$1,051	$1.49	12d	1	0.08mi
4000 Churchman Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	17d	1	0.16mi
4046 Taylor Blvd Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	0.37mi
3746 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	955	$1,350	$1.41	17d	1	0.38mi
3717 Wheeler Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,450	$1.29	24d	1	0.48mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	24d	1	0.56mi
3700 Georgetown Pl Unit 2302-201 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$901	$1.13	12d	1	0.56mi
3655 Kahlert Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	915	$1,300	$1.42	12d	1	0.62mi
3627 Parthenia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	24d	1	0.65mi
1517 Shingo Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,349	$1.23	24d	1	0.66mi
1022 Stanley Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	22d	1	0.70mi
3523 Georgetown Pl #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	18d	1	0.77mi
1519 Crums Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$888	$1.08	17d	2	0.78mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Unit 3530 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	886	$1,350	$1.52	4d	1	0.81mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	15d	4	0.81mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	24d	2	0.81mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	734	$1,050	$1.43	4d	1	0.81mi
1519 Crums Ln Apt 25 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	820	$900	$1.10	24d	1	0.81mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	17d	1	0.81mi
3513 Georgetown Pl Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$949	$1.19	24d	1	0.82mi
1709 Valley Forge Way Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	22d	1	0.83mi
1711 Valley Forge Way Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$949	$1.05	11d	1	0.84mi
1118 W Whitney Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$1,199	$1.56	24d	1	0.85mi
3449 Powell Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.93mi
1411 Sale Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$1,000	$1.07	17d	1	0.98mi
1111 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	680	$1,100	$1.62	17d	1	1.08mi
2200 Rosewood Way Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	900	$1,159	$1.29	3d	1	1.09mi
4319 Sanders Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$925	$0.97	4d	1	1.17mi
4626 Southern Pkwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	809	$895	$1.11	15d	3	1.22mi
4608 S 3rd St Unit 1st Floor Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	24d	1	1.34mi
623 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	17d	1	1.42mi
615 Dresden Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	884	$1,450	$1.64	24d	1	1.45mi
418 Marshall Walk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	24d	1	1.47mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Unit 6213-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	24d	1	1.49mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Unit 6214-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	4d	1	1.49mi
6100 Ledgewood Pkwy Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$850	$1.03	17d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $119,000 Active
3. 2007-09-28
   soldstatus $20,990 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS. Pre-approval or proof of funds letter & minimum 1% good faith deposit required with all offers.

4. 2007-08-21
   listed $24,990 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS. Pre-approval or proof of funds letter & minimum 1% good faith deposit required with all offers.

5. 2007-08-15
   historical
6. 2007-01-08
   listed $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$28/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $51
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12
• After-tax cash flow: $1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,532
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.35%
• Current HPI: 227.8248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+266.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $119,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $20,990 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-21 Listed $24,990 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-15 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $32,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $693 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.