8621 Shadblow Ct #4 · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1984 $600/mo HOA · 36% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attractive 2 bedroom end unit home in Forest Lakes Condo Association. 1st floor unit with compact eat in kitchen off entry. Kitchen showcases small breakfast bar, wood look vinyl floor, tile back splash, and stainless steel appliances. Newly carpeted living/room dining room combo with new 2 tone paint throughout and wet bar. * * NEW A/C UNIT * * Both bedrooms are newly carpeted and offer walk in closets. Master bathroom includes step in tile shower. Enclosed lanai off rear sliding door with laundry closet and exit to exterior common area. Great spot to enjoy your breakfast and start the day!! Wonderful community features pool and clubhouse located close to schools and shopping!! A must see!!

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Fitness center
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BUILT IN BAR AREA
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CLUBHOUSE WITH A POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities: Clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sidewalks, deed restrictions; Pets allowed with size limit
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees $7,200; Total monthly fees $600
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Coastal Management; Monthly HOA fee $600 (includes cable TV, grounds maintenance, pest control, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Condo land included

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium residence; Two-story building; Unit on first floor; Facing east
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building/Unit identified as UNIT 4
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.03 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.34%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-12,247
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-12,267
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 577
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7741 Forest Trl #3 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,500	$1.49	24d	1	0.07mi
8910 Elm Leaf Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,650	$1.32	4d	1	0.26mi
9100 Hunt Club Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$1,850	$1.36	21d	1	0.44mi
8228 Chasco Woods Blvd Port Richey, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,388	$1.44	1d	22	0.44mi
9105 Hermitage Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,900	$1.32	24d	1	0.45mi
7435 San Miguel Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,500	$1.32	20d	1	0.47mi
7501 San Moritz Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	0.52mi
9103 Westby Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,995	$2.38	24d	1	0.52mi
9130 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,623	$1.34	21d	1	0.57mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	14d	1	0.59mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	24d	1	0.59mi
8940 Miguel Pl Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,290	$1.79	2d	10	0.59mi
7605 Embassy Blvd Unit 1 Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,350	$1.60	24d	1	0.60mi
7605 Embassy Blvd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,350	$1.84	12d	1	0.60mi
9211 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,215	$1.88	20d	1	0.63mi
7125 Sandalwood Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$1,681	$1.27	4d	1	0.65mi
8026 Colrain Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,545	$1.43	24d	1	0.68mi
9300 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	24d	1	0.73mi
9310 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,350	$1.38	11d	1	0.75mi
8356 Journet Blvd Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,315	$1.56	24d	1	0.88mi
8247 Saybrook Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	23d	1	0.95mi
7034 Coral Reef Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	24d	1	0.95mi
9615 Gray Fox Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	3d	1	0.98mi
7301 Moravian Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,806	$1.36	4d	1	0.98mi
8151 Hixton Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,699	$1.57	16d	1	0.98mi
9035 Cochise Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,395	$1.27	14d	1	1.08mi
9304 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1356	$1,550	$1.14	21d	1	1.10mi
7325 Ivanhoe Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	10d	1	1.10mi
6935 Twilite Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	16d	1	1.15mi
9820 Rainbow Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	14d	1	1.19mi
9110 Saint Clair Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$2,100	$2.88	24d	1	1.19mi
8712 Roble Way Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,841	$1.62	24d	1	1.19mi
7224 Potomac Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,595	$1.32	24d	1	1.19mi
9425 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,700	$1.23	24d	1	1.21mi
7212 Carlton Arms Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,609	$1.83	24d	1	1.23mi
8540 Robilina Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,432	$1.98	3d	14	1.24mi
8437 Luray Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,595	$1.54	4d	1	1.27mi
6412 Pawling Ave Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,750	$2.17	24d	1	1.38mi
8019 Portage Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,000	$1.86	16d	1	1.39mi
8422 Paxton Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,800	$2.42	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 519-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $9
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $1,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $86,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Listed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.