12730 Dina Springs Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$280,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 5,750 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy relaxed living at Mostyn Springs, a charming community nestled in the peaceful countryside of Magnolia, TX. With close proximity to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining, this neighborhood offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Step into this stunning Blanton plan featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths & a 2-car garage. The open-concept design is ideal for entertaining, with the kitchen flowing into the dining area and family room. The kitchen includes stainless steel appliances, clean white cabinetry, and sleek omega stone countertops. Enjoy vinyl plank flooring throughout the main areas, with tile in the wet spaces. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with a glass e

Key facts

• Top-rated schools
• Vinyl plank flooring
• Tile in wet spaces

Tags

• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CLEAN WHITE CABINETRY
• OMEGA STONE COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILE IN WET SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: DRB Homes
• HOA & community: Community managed by Lead Association Management; Annual association fee of $800

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor, 13x15); Bedroom (first floor, 11x12); Bedroom (first floor, 10x12); Family room (first floor, 14x18); Breakfast nook (first floor, 9x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Solid surface counters; Tub/shower; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen and dining combined; Living and dining room; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $280,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $268,189.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,833 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,189
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: 4.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12739 Dina Springs Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+0%)	6mo	$267,990	$167	93
12759 Dina Springs Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,597 (-0%)	1mo	$268,990	$168	90
13082 Sarah Springs Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-5%)	5mo	$244,990	$161	80
40494 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+2%)	6mo	$269,000	$164	79
12975 Daniel Springs Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-8%)	4mo	$267,990	$181	78
13070 Sarah Springs Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-5%)	8mo	$239,990	$158	77
40635 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-8%)	6mo	$267,990	$181	77
12743 Dina Springs Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+13%)	1mo	$254,990	$141	76
40723 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-5%)	6mo	$252,990	$167	76
40784 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (-0%)	8mo	$264,990	$166	72
40639 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+9%)	5mo	$282,990	$162	71
40696 Pessi Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+9%)	6mo	$282,990	$162	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $123,893
• Equity at exit: $241,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $368,144
• Equity at exit: $521,033

Cash invested: $75,093 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,406
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,023/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $230,174

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-170	+0% $-263	+5% $-355	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-346	+0% $-263	+5% $-180	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-195	base $-263	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,047
• Closing costs: $8,046
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	44d	1	0.10mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,792	$1.58	4d	1	1.19mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,824	$1.61	11d	1	1.19mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	3d	31	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $280,990 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $280,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-16
   listed $289,990 Active 1297-char remark
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $289,990 Active 896-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,023
• − Property taxes: −$4,023
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,802
• Taxable loss: −$7,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $280,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $289,990 HARMLS