4305 153rd Pl · Urbandale, IA 50323

$205,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,176 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2007 $270/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Won't last long! Updated 2 bedroom 2.5 bathroom townhome in a wonderful Urbandale neighborhood. On the main level, you are greeted with new flooring throughout, an ample living area with an electric fireplace, half bath, new kitchen cabinets, and stainless steel appliances that are there to stay. Upstairs you will find two bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, laundry, and new carpet. Nice sized deck ready for relaxing or entertaining. Call today for your private showing.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Second-floor laundry
• Nearby parks

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE DECK
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEARBY PARKS
• WALKING AND BIKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Walnut Grove) with Edge Property Management; HOA fee $270 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Zoned residential
• Construction: Built with stone and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Concrete road access; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 10% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $118,944 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.18%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $14,173
• Equity at exit: $113,780

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $71,172
• Equity at exit: $194,420

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,236/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $118,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-371	-5% $-429	+0% $-487	+5% $-545	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-608	-5% $-548	+0% $-487	+5% $-426	+10% $-366
Rate	-1.0pp $-384	-0.5pp $-435	base $-487	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-594

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4315 152nd Ct Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,495	$1.21	15d	1	0.03mi
4304 153rd Pl Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.04mi
4307 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1445	$1,850	$1.28	24d	1	0.12mi
15211 Greenbelt Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,450	$1.37	20d	1	0.13mi
4304 154th St Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,595	$1.29	45d	1	0.14mi
15221 Alpine Dr Urbandale, IA	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	45d	1	0.17mi
15403 Aurora Ave Unit 1 Urbandale, IA	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	24d	1	0.17mi
4015 154th St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,295	$1.61	20d	1	0.26mi
4454 142nd St Urbandale, IA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,190	$1.25	15d	6	0.82mi
3504 163rd St Urbandale, IA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,245	$1.54	20d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,236
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$9,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+60.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $205,000 DMMLS
• 2021-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-19 Sold (MLS) $164,900 DMMLS
• 2021-03-04 Pending — DMMLS
• 2021-03-03 Listed $164,900 DMMLS
• 2020-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-04 Sold (MLS) $148,000 DMMLS
• 2020-03-23 Pending — DMMLS
• 2020-03-16 Listed $148,000 DMMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $121,000 DMMLS
• 2014-07-01 Listed $125,000 DMMLS
• 2008-07-10 Sold (MLS) $129,000 DMMLS
• 2008-06-08 Listed $127,900 DMMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,236 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.