2439 Carlow Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$284,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Other public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION Welcome to Ashford Crossing by Centex in Princeton, where your dream home awaits! Introducing the two-story Pierce plan, a stunning blend of elegance and comfort. This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home is thoughtfully designed with every detail in mind. Imagine unwinding on your charming patio or retreating to your oversized owner’s suite. The upgraded secondary bedrooms and premium finishes in the bathrooms add a touch of luxury. Perfect for active families, this neighborhood provides a warm, close-knit atmosphere. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this exquisite home yours— Available for move-in January - February 2026!

Key facts

• New construction
• Premium finishes
• Charming patio

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• CHARMING PATIO
• OVERSIZED OWNERS SUITE
• UPGRADED SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• PREMIUM FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing conditions; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Quarterly association fee ($300); Association fee includes full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by CMA Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20' x 20'); 2 covered parking spaces; Covered parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: MUD water; MUD sewer; Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2025)
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot in Ashford Crossing subdivision; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 2 with dual sinks, linen closet, and walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on level 2 with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Smart home system; One living area; One dining area; Six total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($207/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $226,694 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,813
• Equity at exit: $42,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,729
• Equity at exit: $24,641

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $284,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $98	+0% $17	+5% $-63	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-72	+0% $17	+5% $107	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $90	base $17	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2440 Limerick Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,998	$1.12	26d	1	0.11mi
1403 Forever Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,250	$1.10	4d	1	0.33mi
1417 Forever Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$2,100	$1.08	19d	1	0.34mi
1008 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,995	$1.09	26d	1	0.38mi
1006 Honey Maple St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1842	$1,950	$1.06	45d	1	0.39mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	0.39mi
1306 Colonial Bluff Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	0d	1	0.39mi
1412 Chestnut Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	22d	1	0.49mi
1103 Wagon Wheel Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.52mi
720 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,250	$1.12	26d	1	0.57mi
717 Rawhide Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.61mi
627 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	0.68mi
1209 Hopes Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$1,975	$1.02	5d	1	0.69mi
1209 Hopes Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$1,975	$1.02	0d	1	0.69mi
1316 Rusted Rail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1931	$2,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.73mi
603 Calm Springs Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2039	$2,250	$1.10	13d	1	0.75mi
603 Smokey Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,100	$1.29	20d	1	0.75mi
611 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	45d	1	0.76mi
604 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,050	$1.29	45d	1	0.80mi
513 Spur Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.80mi
2203 Heatwave Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,080	$0.98	23d	1	0.89mi
507 Saddle Club Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,090	$1.04	14d	1	0.89mi
503 Willow View Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,149	$1.07	9d	1	0.89mi
408 Stampede Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,925	$1.07	45d	1	0.90mi
2230 Currents Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,099	$1.14	45d	1	0.99mi
420 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,975	$1.06	9d	1	0.99mi
1136 Mimosa Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1987	$2,200	$1.11	45d	1	0.99mi
1501 Hidden Bluff Xing Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,200	$1.23	14d	1	1.00mi
1208 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	1.01mi
1204 Sequoia Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,165	$1.08	45d	1	1.02mi
412 Gunsmoke Trl Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2193	$2,000	$0.91	45d	1	1.03mi
1443 Mesquite Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,250	$1.13	45d	1	1.03mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	20d	1	1.06mi
508 Poplar St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,995	$1.09	18d	1	1.12mi
922 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,900	$1.03	7d	1	1.13mi
810 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,749	$1.09	9d	1	1.14mi
1001 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	26d	1	1.15mi
917 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	5d	1	1.15mi
815 Evergreen St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$1,999	$1.09	45d	1	1.15mi
913 Rosewood St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,050	$1.02	45d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $284,990
3. 2026-04-17
   status Active
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-17
   price $289,990
6. 2025-12-10
   price $299,990
7. 2025-11-07
   price $303,780
8. 2025-10-09
   price $323,780
9. 2025-10-02
   listed $343,780 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,491/yr (+$374/mo · 619.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,141
• After-tax cash flow: $1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $284,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $289,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $299,990 NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $303,780 NTREIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $323,780 NTREIS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $343,780 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.