39019 Heath Dr · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$149,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1974 6,394 sqft lot Est $198k · 24% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Winter Visitors or Full Time Residents, Hillcrest Estates is a Mobile Home park on the northeast side of Zephyrhills which includes a few site built homes. And this is one of them! This house was built in 1974 and has 2 bedrooms, a bath and a half, a partially fenced yard and a detached shed. There is an unfinished enclosed porch along the front of the house. The best thing about this house is its location close to shopping, hospital and medical facilities, and restaurants . The HOA is $335 per year and pays for the water, street lights, road maintenance and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Spacious floor plan
• Updated kitchen
• Conveniently located

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LUXURY PLANK FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FRESH INTERIOR FINISHES
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Everett Haley) with annual fee of $450 (monthly equivalent $37.50); HOA fee covers private road and water; Clubhouse; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal and shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Building area reported (owner/public records)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Storage shed; Chain link fencing; Oak trees on property; Paved lot and asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry chute; Laundry closet; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $150k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,824 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,825
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39047 Heath Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	912 (-11%)	2mo	$50,000	$55	78
6142 19th St	0.13mi	2/2.0	989 (-4%)	8mo	$275,000	$278	77
38916 11th Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,037 (+1%)	15mo	$235,000	$227	60
38832 Henry Dr	0.19mi	2/1.5	884 (-14%)	8mo	$230,000	$260	59
5721 20th St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+8%)	6mo	$213,000	$193	52
6125 11th St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	9mo	$210,000	$191	51
6145 11th St	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	9mo	$279,900	$254	51
6126 16th St	0.28mi	2/1.5	884 (-14%)	14mo	$225,000	$255	50
5624 Mccoy Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+6%)	3mo	$180,000	$165	50
5640 17th St	0.64mi	2/2.0	936 (-9%)	3mo	$116,000	$124	49
5906 12th St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,156 (+13%)	8mo	$195,000	$169	36
6712 Holly Ct	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,148 (+12%)	9mo	$160,000	$139	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-21,303
• Equity at exit: $22,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,908
• Equity at exit: $12,952

Cash invested: $41,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,187/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $149,800

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,450
• Closing costs: $4,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.16mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	24d	1	0.16mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	4d	1	0.27mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	17d	1	0.29mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	0.43mi
38719 12th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	1246	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.47mi
5812 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	24d	1	0.52mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.60mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	0.62mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.62mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	0.62mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.73mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	2d	1	0.74mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	1d	1	0.74mi
38300 Henry Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,650	$1.43	4d	1	0.75mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.77mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	12d	1	0.79mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	24d	1	0.80mi
6136 Pina Colada St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	12d	1	0.91mi
6195 Daerr Ridge St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,000	$1.44	17d	1	1.02mi
39252 Heights Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,050	$1.69	14d	1	1.03mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.18mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	1.28mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.29mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	4d	1	1.33mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.34mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.35mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.36mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	1.37mi
4940 9th St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	1.38mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	24d	1	1.39mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	4d	1	1.40mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	1.42mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.43mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	24d	1	1.47mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.48mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.49mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,800 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,800 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,800 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,800 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,800 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,800 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,800 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,800 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,800 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,800 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,800 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,800 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,800 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    status Active
15. 2026-04-19
    status Pending
16. 2026-02-10
    price $149,800
17. 2026-01-23
    price $149,900
18. 2025-12-08
    status Active
19. 2025-11-18
    status Active
20. 2025-11-12
    status Pending
21. 2025-10-24
    listed $158,900 Active
22. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $56,000 Sold 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Winter Visitors or Full Time Residents, Hillcrest Estates is a Mobile Home park on the northeast side of Zephyrhills which includes a few site built homes. And this is one of them! This house was built in 1974 and has 2 bedrooms, a bath and a half, a partially fenced yard and a detached shed. There is an unfinished enclosed porch along the front of the house. The best thing about this house is its location close to shopping, hospital and medical facilities, and restaurants . The HOA is $335 per year and pays for the water, street lights, road maintenance and clubhouse.

23. 2020-08-25
    status Pending 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Winter Visitors or Full Time Residents, Hillcrest Estates is a Mobile Home park on the northeast side of Zephyrhills which includes a few site built homes. And this is one of them! This house was built in 1974 and has 2 bedrooms, a bath and a half, a partially fenced yard and a detached shed. There is an unfinished enclosed porch along the front of the house. The best thing about this house is its location close to shopping, hospital and medical facilities, and restaurants . The HOA is $335 per year and pays for the water, street lights, road maintenance and clubhouse.

24. 2020-08-01
    price $56,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Winter Visitors or Full Time Residents, Hillcrest Estates is a Mobile Home park on the northeast side of Zephyrhills which includes a few site built homes. And this is one of them! This house was built in 1974 and has 2 bedrooms, a bath and a half, a partially fenced yard and a detached shed. There is an unfinished enclosed porch along the front of the house. The best thing about this house is its location close to shopping, hospital and medical facilities, and restaurants . The HOA is $335 per year and pays for the water, street lights, road maintenance and clubhouse.

25. 2020-06-29
    listed $60,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Winter Visitors or Full Time Residents, Hillcrest Estates is a Mobile Home park on the northeast side of Zephyrhills which includes a few site built homes. And this is one of them! This house was built in 1974 and has 2 bedrooms, a bath and a half, a partially fenced yard and a detached shed. There is an unfinished enclosed porch along the front of the house. The best thing about this house is its location close to shopping, hospital and medical facilities, and restaurants . The HOA is $335 per year and pays for the water, street lights, road maintenance and clubhouse.

26. 2008-06-19
    listed $59,900
27. 2003-11-12
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,187
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$4,358
• Taxable loss: −$1,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$251
• After-tax cash flow: $1,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+294.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $149,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed $158,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-01 Price Changed $56,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-29 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-19 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,187 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.