27 Canvasback Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1996 0.37 ac lot $888/sqft · 10% above area Est $1172k · at est. $33/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen ., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Annual association fee of $400; Association covers common area maintenance, grounds care, and other services; Association amenities include boat dock, landscaping, maintenance, maintained grounds, park, powered boats allowed, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Natural gas connected; Water available; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area listed from plans
• Construction: Cedar construction
• Exterior features: Boat slip; Dock; Garden; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($55k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $649k; list at $1.20M implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,159,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.99%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,172,379
• List price: $1,195,000
• Delta: 1.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Whiting Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	14mo	$899,000	$692	66
30 Kennedy Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-1%)	14mo	$790,000	$594	61
33 Dolphin Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-1%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$827	60
6 Sanderling Ln	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,462 (+9%)	9mo	$1,375,000	$940	60
14 Whiting Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (+14%)	2mo	$775,000	$504	49
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-12%)	16mo	$800,000	$672	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $98,635
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $462,278
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,798 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$668 /mo · $8,012/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,318
• Net cashflow: $4,589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,990

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,265	-5% $4,927	+0% $4,589	+5% $4,251	+10% $3,912
Rent	-10% $3,341	-5% $3,965	+0% $4,589	+5% $5,213	+10% $5,837
Rate	-1.0pp $5,191	-0.5pp $4,893	base $4,589	+0.5pp $4,279	+1.0pp $3,964

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	0.92mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	44d	1	0.94mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	0.98mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	1.03mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	1.04mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$10,000	$9.89	44d	1	1.13mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	1.17mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	12d	1	1.21mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	44d	1	1.29mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.40mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	1.41mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $1,195,000 Active 1671-char remark
17. 2025-06-02
    historical $30,000
18. 2024-11-26
    listed $30,000
19. 2024-11-26
    historical $30,000
20. 2024-06-21
    listed $30,000
21. 2020-08-03
    soldstatus $649,000
22. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus $649,000 Closed 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen ., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

23. 2020-03-26
    status Pending 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen ., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

24. 2020-03-05
    status Under Contract 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen ., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

25. 2020-02-24
    listed $649,000 New 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen ., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Business Located At:,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

26. 2014-01-02
    soldstatus $450,000
27. 2013-12-06
    soldstatus $450,000

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Contemporary Ranch In Private Beach & Marina Community. Features Open L/R/ Din.Area With Brick F/P,&Oak Floor,Kitchen,3Bd.2Ba., 3 Season Enclosed Porch & Sundeck With Outdoor Shower.C/A, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

28. 2013-12-06
    soldstatus $450,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Contemporary Ranch In Private Beach & Marina Community. Features Open L/R/ Din.Area With Brick F/P,&Oak Floor,Kitchen,3Bd.2Ba., 3 Season Enclosed Porch & Sundeck With Outdoor Shower.C/A, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

29. 2013-10-15
    status Under Contract
30. 2013-07-11
    price $479,000 Price Change
31. 2013-04-11
    listed $499,000 New

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Contemporary Ranch In Private Beach & Marina Community. Features Open L/R/ Din.Area With Brick F/P,&Oak Floor,Kitchen,3Bd.2Ba., 3 Season Enclosed Porch & Sundeck With Outdoor Shower.C/A, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

32. 2013-04-11
    listed $479,000

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Contemporary Ranch In Private Beach & Marina Community. Features Open L/R/ Din.Area With Brick F/P,&Oak Floor,Kitchen,3Bd.2Ba., 3 Season Enclosed Porch & Sundeck With Outdoor Shower.C/A, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

33. 1985-12-13
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,012 · $668/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,104 · $1,175/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,092/yr (+$508/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $189,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$8,012
• − Insurance: −$11,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,166
• − Management: −$15,166
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable income: $38,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,130
• After-tax cash flow: $45,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1738.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Rental Removed $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Listed for Rent $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-11-26 Rental Removed $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-06-21 Listed for Rent $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2020-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $649,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-20 Sold (MLS) $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-24 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2013-12-06 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MLSLI
• 2013-12-06 Sold (MLS) $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-15 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-07-11 Price Changed $479,000 MLSLI
• 2013-04-11 Listed $499,000 MLSLI
• 2013-04-11 Listed $479,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,012 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.