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27 Canvasback Ln
F Composite 28.03
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.9/15.0
  • Schools +6.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.8/5.0
  • Cash flow +3.9/30.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +0.0/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$1,195,000

27 Canvasback Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,345 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market
Built 1996 Excellent condition 0.37 ac lot 1-car garage $888/sqft · 7% above area Est $1.205M · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Turn key ranch in the Landings of East Quogue , the community has boat docking .The home was updated 3 years ago with a new roof , new kitchen , 2 new bathrooms , new natural gas boiler and new central air system a special home that must be seen .

Key facts

  • 0.37 acre lot
  • Garage
  • Built 1996

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-46k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $519k (56.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $515k (56.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $515k (56.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 6.6% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
  • East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
  • Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • At $5,147/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
  • Current owner paid $649k; list at $1.20M implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $514,710 (56.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.43%
Cap rate
2.88%
Cash-on-cash
-12.19%
DSCR
0.46
GRM
19.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$1,205,115
List price
$1,195,000
Delta
-0.84%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
17 Whiting Rd 0.38mi 3/2.0 1,318 (-2%) 1mo $999,999 $759 78
22 Barracuda Rd 0.20mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,190 (-12%) 2mo $915,000 $769 65
6 Whiting Rd 0.36mi 3/2.0 1,300 (-3%) 17mo $899,000 $692 63
30 Kennedy Dr 0.55mi 3/2.0 1,329 (-1%) 17mo $790,000 $594 58
33 Dolphin Rd 0.47mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,330 (-1%) 17mo $1,100,000 $827 57
6 Sanderling Ln 0.31mi 3/3.0 1,462 (+9%) 12mo $1,375,000 $940 57
25 Dolphin Rd 0.45mi 3/1.0 1,160 (-14%) 3mo $1,015,000 $875 50
14 Whiting Rd 0.35mi 2/1.0 (-1) 1,538 (+14%) 6mo $775,000 $504 46
21 Eisenhower Dr 0.42mi 3/2.0 1,190 (-12%) 19mo $800,000 $672 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-42.2%
Equity multiple
-0.31×
Total profit
$-437,444
Equity at exit
$178,178
10-year hold
IRR
-72.1%
Equity multiple
-1.08×
Total profit
$-695,262
Equity at exit
$103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State New York
15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
11 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply
9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$995,000 ($841/sqft)
Median days on market
63 d
This list price
73% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

Home prices YoY
-25.0%
Active inventory
105
Price-to-rent
19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$5,147 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$6,267
Tax from tax record
$668 /mo · $8,012/yr
Insurance
$498
Flood insurance flood zone
−$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA
$33
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$1,081
Net cashflow
$-3,826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,990
Max offer price $519,190
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-3,149 -5% $-3,487 +0% $-3,826 +5% $-4,164 +10% $-4,502
Rent -10% $-4,232 -5% $-4,029 +0% $-3,826 +5% $-3,622 +10% $-3,419
Rate -1.0pp $-3,224 -0.5pp $-3,522 base $-3,826 +0.5pp $-4,135 +1.0pp $-4,450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$298,750
Closing costs
$35,850
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 18 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
18 Tarpon Rd East Quogue, NY 4.0 3.0 1724 $4,750 $2.76 0d 1 0.25mi
38 Baycrest Ave East Quogue, NY 2.0 2.5 1260 $9,500 $7.54 51d 1 0.67mi
452 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY 3.0 1.5 1510 $4,600 $3.05 36d 1 0.90mi
452 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY 3.0 1.5 1510 $4,600 $3.05 22d 1 0.90mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 2.0 1004 $4,000 $3.98 139d 1 0.92mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY 3.0 1.0 976 $4,500 $4.61 139d 1 0.94mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY 3.0 2.0 1260 $38,500 $30.56 120d 1 0.98mi
59 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 2.0 1226 $4,500 $3.67 0d 1 0.99mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY 3.0 3.0 1635 $5,000 $3.06 139d 1 1.03mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY 3.0 2.0 1368 $16,000 $11.70 101d 1 1.04mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY 2.0 1.0 1011 $9,000 $8.90 71d 1 1.13mi
41 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 2.0 1228 $4,500 $3.66 0d 1 1.16mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY 2.0 1.0 1440 $17,500 $12.15 113d 1 1.17mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 1.0 1040 $3,800 $3.65 0d 1 1.21mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY 4.0 2.0 1776 $4,200 $2.36 39d 1 1.29mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 3.0 1697 $4,000 $2.36 0d 1 1.40mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY 3.0 1.5 900 $15,000 $16.67 139d 1 1.41mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY 4.0 2.0 1722 $7,000 $4.07 55d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Has associationAnnual association fee of $400Association covers common area maintenance, grounds care, and other servicesAssociation amenities include boat dock, landscaping, maintenance, maintained grounds, park, powered boats allowed, and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Driveway1-car garage
Utilities
Electricity connected (PSEG)Natural gas connectedWater availableCesspool sewer
Home design
Single-family residenceLiving area listed from plans
Construction
Cedar construction
Exterior features
Boat slipDockGardenBack yard fencing

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGas cooktopGas rangeMicrowaveOvenRangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesWine refrigerator
Bedrooms
Includes a bedroom on the first floor
Flooring
Hardwood
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central air conditioningForced air heatingNatural gas heatingENERGY STAR qualified equipment
Interior features
First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomBeamed ceilingsCeiling fansCentral vacuumChef's kitchenEat-in kitchenGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandOpen floorplanOpen kitchenStone countersWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
WasherDryer

HOA detail $33/mo · $396/yr

Likely covers
gas

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 142 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 141 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 140 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 139 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 138 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 137 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 136 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 135 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 134 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 133 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 132 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 131 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 130 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 129 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 123 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 122 DOM
  17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 120 DOM
  18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 118 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 116 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 115 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 114 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 113 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 112 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 111 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 110 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 109 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 108 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 107 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 106 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 105 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 104 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 103 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 102 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 101 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 100 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 99 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 98 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 97 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 96 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 95 DOM
  41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 93 DOM
  42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 92 DOM
  43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 91 DOM
  44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 90 DOM
  45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 87 DOM
  46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 86 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 85 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 84 DOM
  49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 82 DOM
  50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

Current annual tax
$8,012 · $668/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$14,104 · $1,175/mo
Expected delta
+$6,092/yr (+$508/mo · 76.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 93% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$61,765
− Mortgage interest
−$66,939
− Property taxes
−$8,012
− Insurance
−$11,094
− Repairs & maintenance
−$4,941
− Management
−$4,941
− HOA
−$396
− Depreciation
−$34,764
Taxable loss
−$69,321
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$16,637
After-tax cash flow
$-29,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This fully renovated home in a private community offers exceptional waterfront access and a turn-key living experience.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring wood

Deferred maintenance Est. $500–$2,000 screening

  • Minor Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No visible signs of major damage or wear on roof.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Private dock and bay beach access — Unique selling point for boating enthusiasts and water sports enthusiasts
  • Both Exclusive private community — Desirable location for those seeking a waterfront lifestyle
D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

District
East Quogue Union Free School District
NCES district ID
3609900
Math proficiency
55% ▬ 0.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▲ 5.00%
Median HH income
$81,457
Composite
49.79/100
National rank
#4207
State rank
#342 of 755 in NY
C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

Score
61/100
State rank
#943
US rank
#18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
East Quogue, NY
County
Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
City population
5,871
Metro
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP)
5,871
Household income
$106,875
Rent vs Own
14.6% rent · 85.4% own
Severe rent burden
4% of renters

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,505,262 people
By 2030
1,498,318 · -0.5%
By 2040
1,471,101 · -2.3%
By 2050
1,424,848 · -5.3%
By 2075
1,337,157 · -11.2%
By 2100
1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity
White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
Languages at home
80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

2024 margin
Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
2008→2024 swing
-16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
All cycles
2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+1738.5% since first listed
18 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-05 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-06-02 Rental Removed $30,000 ONEKEY
  • 2024-11-26 Listed for Rent $30,000 ONEKEY
  • 2024-11-26 Rental Removed $30,000 ONEKEY
  • 2024-06-21 Listed for Rent $30,000 ONEKEY
  • 2020-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $649,000 Public Records
  • 2020-07-20 Sold (MLS) $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-03-26 Pending OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-03-05 Pending OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2020-02-24 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2014-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
  • 2013-12-06 Sold (MLS) $450,000 MLSLI
  • 2013-12-06 Sold (MLS) $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2013-10-15 Pending MLSLI
  • 2013-07-11 Price Changed $479,000 MLSLI
  • 2013-04-11 Listed $499,000 MLSLI
  • 2013-04-11 Listed $479,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 1985-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,012 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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