6950 46th Ave N · West Lealman, FL 33709

$199,500

3 bd · 5.0 ba · 6,046 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2013

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ Florida Home Near Beach in Victory Estates (Resident-Owned Community) in St Petersburg, Florida ?? Don & acirc; & euro; & trade; t miss out on this AFFORDABLE coastal home just minutes from Madeira Beach & amp; Johns Pass Village & amp; Boardwalk ?? HOME FEATURES: & acirc; & euro; & cent; One-owner home (purchased 2013) & acirc; & euro; & cent; ?? NEW ROOF (2024) & acirc; & euro; & cent; ?? NEW carpet & amp; laminate flooring & acirc; & euro; & cent; ?? Clubhouse + pool access & acirc; & euro; & cent; ?? 2 pets allowed (30 lbs or less) Low HOA $300 month Quiet, well-kept community (ONLY 58 units

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Pool access
• New carpet

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW CARPET
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• CLUBHOUSE ACCESS
• POOL ACCESS
• QUIET COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/5.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.9% in West Lealman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#84 in FL, #1,396 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 311 active listings in the ZIP; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,385/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,829
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $18,755
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33709

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $574	+0% $505	+5% $436	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $411	+0% $505	+5% $600	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $556	base $505	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,500 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $199,500 Active
14. 2011-09-07
    listed $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,290
• − Management: −$2,290
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $3,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $5,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Lealman

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Lealman, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 25,371
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,050
• Household income: $53,501
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 712.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.74%
• Current HPI: 391.368
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.99%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,500 FSBO.com
• 2011-09-07 Listed $73,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid