727 Private Road 1516 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2013 0.28 ac lot $66/sqft · 46% below area Est $130k · 46% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.08%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,999
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -46.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $41,856
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $105,133
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,524/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $874	-5% $854	+0% $834	+5% $814	+10% $795
Rent	-10% $696	-5% $765	+0% $834	+5% $903	+10% $972
Rate	-1.0pp $869	-0.5pp $852	base $834	+0.5pp $816	+1.0pp $798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	44d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-01-29
    price $70,000 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    This property is being sold as-is.

16. 2026-01-08
    listed $75,000 New 34-char remark

    Show marketing remark (34 chars)

    This property is being sold as-is.

17. 2020-09-10
    soldstatus Sold 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

18. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2020-09-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

20. 2020-09-04
    status Pending 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

21. 2020-08-24
    historical Active Contingent
22. 2020-08-23
    historical Active Option 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

23. 2020-08-13
    listed $105,000 Active
24. 2020-08-11
    price $105,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

25. 2020-07-14
    price $108,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

26. 2020-07-14
    price $95,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

27. 2020-07-13
    status Back on Market 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

28. 2020-07-13
    status Back on Market 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

29. 2020-07-13
    historical 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

30. 2020-05-30
    status Pending 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

31. 2020-05-22
    historical Active Option 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

32. 2020-03-09
    price $114,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

33. 2019-12-31
    price $120,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

34. 2019-09-17
    price $125,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

35. 2019-08-23
    price $129,900 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

36. 2019-05-15
    listed $135,000 New 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Unwind in the quiet Medina Lake community of Holiday Villages. Whether you need a place to get away for the weekend to fish, boat, jet ski, play & rest, or if you just want to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city and enjoy the day to day relaxed lifestyle, this low maintenance manufactured home may be just the thing. Check out this cozy 2x2 with a 10x10 and 11x14 shed, on a quarter acre lot. This gated community offers a pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, fishing pier, playground, bbq area, walking distance to the lake and much much more.

37. 2014-02-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,524 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,524 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,524
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $7,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-48.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $70,000 LERA
• 2026-01-08 Listed $75,000 LERA
• 2020-09-10 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-09-09 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-09-04 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-09-04 Pending — LERA
• 2020-08-24 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2020-08-23 Contingent — LERA
• 2020-08-13 Listed $105,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-08-11 Price Changed $105,000 LERA
• 2020-07-14 Price Changed $108,000 LERA
• 2020-07-14 Price Changed $95,000 LERA
• 2020-07-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2020-07-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2020-07-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2020-05-30 Pending — LERA
• 2020-05-22 Contingent — LERA
• 2020-03-09 Price Changed $114,000 LERA
• 2019-12-31 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2019-09-17 Price Changed $125,000 LERA
• 2019-08-23 Price Changed $129,900 LERA
• 2019-05-15 Listed $135,000 LERA
• 2014-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,524 · -9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.