139 Main St · Clayville, NY 13322

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,723 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 0.99 ac lot Est $245k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This house offers so much flexible space- it truly must be seen to appreciate the possibilities! The house was renovated to include a 2 story addition and a front porch to anchor it all together with a perfect gathering space. The killer kitchen offers double wall ovens, a gas range/oven with hood, a spacious island with a prep sink and granite counters. From the kitchen the floor plan flows to a formal dining room, living room and 3 other flex spaces- bedroom, office- what do you need? There is a large first floor laundry room as well! Upstairs, a second living room with a gas fireplace opens to a large primary suite! There are also 2 more bedrooms and another full bath on this level. Sc

Key facts

• Spacious island
• 2 story addition
• Front porch

Tags

• 2 STORY ADDITION
• FRONT PORCH
• GATHERING SPACE
• DOUBLE WALL OVENS
• GAS RANGE OVEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#954 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sauquoit Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #314 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,170 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,666
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Catlin Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,722 (-0%)	2mo	$238,500	$139	72
2203 Oneida St	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,960 (+14%)	20mo	$278,100	$142	34
11 Catlin Ave	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,500 (-13%)	15mo	$214,000	$143	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $26,223
• Equity at exit: $111,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $95,664
• Equity at exit: $190,084

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13322

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,310/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $150,445

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-223	+0% $-280	+5% $-337	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-332	+0% $-280	+5% $-228	+10% $-176
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-229	base $-280	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,310 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,844 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,310
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sauquoit Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600002
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,391
• Composite: 46.6/100
• National rank: #2418
• State rank: #314 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #954
• US rank: #18696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,059

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Current HPI: 314.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,310 · -26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.